It’s a new year and we’re looking at what 2021 can reserve for electric pickups, electric cars, larger volumes and more.
Last summer, I called the year 2021 the electric car and today, on the first day of the year, we are discussing some trends that we think will make this happen.
Electric pickup trucks
This is not so important everywhere, but in the US, pickup trucks are crucial to accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles.
Pickups are the largest segment of passenger vehicles and, unless that changes, we need electric pickup options to achieve mass adoption of electric vehicles.
2021 is the year that these first electric pickup options will be arriving, although I have moderated my expectations regarding the beginning of 2020.
At this point, I am confident that we will see deliveries of the Rivian R1T, at least some Hummer EVs, perhaps some Lordstown Endurance pickups for some customers in the fleet, and that’s it.
Officially, Tesla says that Cybertruck should arrive in late 2021, but I have my doubts about that, considering the complexity of putting the truck into production.
I prefer to keep my hopes low and be pleasantly surprised.
As for the Ford F150 Electric, the automaker has already postponed it until mid-2022.
So I think the actual volume of electric pickups delivered in 2021 will be relatively low, certainly compared to the overall volume of pickups in the U.S., but the start of electric pickup deliveries is still a significant milestone for electric vehicles at NOS.
Gradually, it will begin to change the mindset of pickup trucks and lay the groundwork for when more models and larger volumes will arrive, which will probably be in 2022-23.
Higher volumes of electric cars
Although the volumes of electric pickups are low in 2021, there are higher volumes of electric vehicles that will be launched this year.
The premium segment is becoming increasingly electric this year, with the Audi Q4 e-tron, Mercedes-Benz EQA and BMW iNEXT hitting the market.
With so many excellent electric vehicles starting to fill the premium segments, it will be difficult for buyers of premium electric cars to decide to buy a gasoline vehicle.
In the premium premium segment, after some delays, the launch of Lucid Air looks solid for this year. I don’t expect an important volume from them in 2021, but they have news when it comes to technology and performance. If successful this year, it could lead to a ramp-up in 2022.
When it comes to less expensive vehicles, Nissan is finally following the Leaf with the Ariya electric crossover, and that should come at a decent volume.
In addition, we have electric vehicles like the VW ID.4 and the Mustang Mach-E, which were technically launched in 2020, but will arrive in much larger volumes in 2021.
But if we’re talking about volume, we have to talk about the Tesla Model Y in 2021.
The vehicle was launched in 2020 and Tesla achieved a production volume, but this will continue to grow massively in 2021.
Let’s not forget that Tesla plans to start producing Model Y at three more plants (Gigafactory Berlin, Gigafactory Shanghai and Gigafactory Texas) in 2021, resulting in Model Y being produced at four different plants on three different continents in 2021.
I have no doubt that the Tesla Model Y will reach an insane production and delivery volume in 2021.
Battery cost and performance
Unsurprisingly, I think 2021 will keep the trend of reducing battery cost and performance improvements strong.
We should even see some automakers reach the much-discussed $ 100 per kWh cost benchmark.
This will make electric vehicles not only cheaper in total cost of ownership, but also the clearest price tag for more people in the industry, which should speed up electrification plans in many automakers that are lagging behind on that front.
Consumer mindset about electric vehicles
In Electrek, we have for some time been defending the idea that there will be a big change in the mindset of car buyers when it comes to electric vehicles.
They will see the potential future resale value of gasoline-powered cars plummet and begin to take that into account when purchasing a new car – resulting in a massive shift in demand for electric vehicles.
We hope that by 2025, only a small fraction of new car buyers will not see the benefits of electric vehicles and will be able to find an electric car that meets their needs at the right price.
Most industry analysts do not see this happening until 2030-2040, but we disagree.
As usual, analysts will accelerate their timeline in 2021 as it becomes more obvious and, hopefully, automakers will adjust their plans, because it is now clear that the industry as a whole is not ready for this change.
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