When Ole Miss and South Carolina are informed tonight in Nashville, the main points of discussion will again and again be that the rebels are playing to reach the NCAA Tournament, and the Gamecocks hope to play the role of SPOILER, BOB.
While these claims are true, although I don’t know how much a win over Ole Miss moves the needle to South Carolina after a miserable 6-14 regular season, the announcers are unlikely to delve deeply into how Ole Miss can move forward or how South Carolina can cause Ole Miss Twitter to collapse overnight.
There will be superficial details, such as points and turnovers per game, as well as some conversations about intangibles. Toil! Effort! Intensity! And the biggest of them all – MOXIE.
All of these are informative parts of a broadcast, but they don’t tell us much more than “This is good” or “This is bad” or “I had no idea that Frank Martin once buried a body in a field outside Manhattan, Kansas * . “
* Working to confirm.
Note: It does not work to confirm.
To see the advantages that one team can have over the other, we turn to advanced statistics to make this match more meaningful. Specifically, we’ll look at what Dean Oliver has dubbed “The Four Factors of Success in Basketball”:
- Percentage of effective field goal (eFG), which is a way of determining how many points a team scores per attempted field goal. The formula is field goals scored + .5 field goals from three points scored divided by the total number of field goal attempts.
- Percentage of turnover, which is the percentage of sales per 100 pieces.
- Percentage of offensive rebounds, which is the percentage of available offensive rebounds that a team obtains.
- Free-throw rate, which is the number of free-throw attempts per basket attempt.
The point is, the more effective you are at shooting, not turning the ball, grabbing offensive rebounds and reaching the free-throw line, the more points you are likely to score.
It also works on the defensive side, as teams need to prevent the opponent from being effective in all four categories. So, technically, let’s look at more like eight factors.
How do Ole Miss and South Carolina compare in these factors? I am so happy to have asked that question. Let’s take a look at where each team is ranked, both offensively and defensively (on Wednesday night), among all 347 active teams in Division I and what those numbers mean. As a note, defensive numbers are where each team ranks in terms of what they allow opponent attacks to do.
EFG Percentage
- OM Off.: 247º (our first YIKES of many)
- SC Def.: 304º
A team that cannot really shoot at a team that cannot prevent teams from being effective in kicking. If you are looking for a positive result in this small advantage, Ole Miss is at the top of the bottom third of 347 teams!
If we dig a little deeper, Ole Miss ranks 191 in the offensive classification, which is the points scored by 100 possessions. While not great, Ole Miss’s ability to offensive rebound, reach the free throw line and turn the teams (which we will see shortly), helps them generate more points than the number of pitches suggests they can.
For the record, South Carolina occupies the 273rd position in the opponent’s offensive classification, which does not change much in its defense.
- SC Off.: 300º
- Def. OM: 194º
An optional field team made against a team that is in the bottom half in defensive pitchers. Although, to be fair, the upper half of the lower half.
Again, digging a little deeper, South Carolina is 279th in the offensive standings, which does not add many points to its offensive skills. However, Ole Miss is ranked 32nd in the opponent’s offensive rating, which is strong evidence that rebels cause problems when an opponent is not advancing for a shot or reaching the rim.
Percentage of turnover
- OM Off.: 242º
- SC Def.: 37º
Not good! Ole Miss turns a lot, and South Carolina requires many twists and turns. If you remember from the previous meeting this season, Ole Miss has turned you over 20 times. The good news for Ole Miss is that when they do, there is a high chance that they are about to create a rotation.
- SC Off.: 204º
- Def. OM: 12th
As both teams are friendly to turnover, as well as ambitious, this category ends up being a bit like a wash. It is also one of the reasons why these teams got together for 39 turnovers in the previous meeting.
Percentage of offensive recovery
- OM Off.: 27
- SC Def.: 292º
HI. Our kids missing the shot must have plenty of opportunities to shoot again because the Gamecocks are a terrible defensive recovery team that would cause my gym coach to die prematurely.
Although he had little knowledge of tactics or fundamentals improvement, he knew how to yell at everyone not to block. There was also a story repeatedly told about how, despite being short, he was the leading rebound of his varsity team.
Why not, it doesn’t make me crazy that I can remember that, but not things related to the present day. Let’s continue.
- SC off: 64º
- Def. OM: 152
Obviously, an advantage for South Carolina, but it is not as big as the one that Ole Miss has. Gamecocks are a good offensive rebound team, while Ole Miss is not a great defensive rebound team, either by far or to be left behind.
Free bid fee
- OM Off.: 91st
- SC Def.: 321st
Ole Miss is the third best in the country to reach the free throw line, while South Carolina, hooooo boy, they love to put their opponent on the free throw line. In Ole Miss’s previous 81-74 victory, the Rebels hit 44 free throws, making a total of 34.
It was one of the most SEC Basketball Fever games of all SEC Basketball Fever games, but we would be happy to accept those free throw numbers again.
- SC Off.: 277º
- Def. OM: 229º
South Carolina does not reach the free throw line very often, but Ole Miss is happy to help them get there. In his best effort to nullify the advantage that 44 free throws give a team, Ole Miss sent South Carolina to the line 29 times. Yes, the 73 combined free throws were as exciting as you could imagine, a person who intelligently did not watch the game.
TL; DR
Ole Miss’s biggest advantages appear in the offensive glass and on arrival at the free throw line. Although opponents hit fairly well against them, they create many problems on the defensive end before the shot is fired.
If they can continue to generate extra possessions through offensive twists and rebounds, while embracing South Carolina’s free-throw donations, they should be in good shape on Thursday in terms of points scored.
On the defensive side, they face a bad offensive team, so anything that limits South Carolina’s extra possessions and easy points on the free throw line would be greatly appreciated. In addition, avoiding a classic Ole Miss scenario in which, in an unmissable game, the opponent sets a school record of three. Difficult pass.