The Latest Developments
There are two important updates to our Sunday morning winter storm forecast:
1.) Precipitation is arriving in southern New Jersey more slowly than expected.
2.) Temperatures are even higher than expected in the southern half of the state, with a rainier start for most.
After analyzing the current situation and the orientation of the most recent model, I believe that these developments will affect the storm schedule, but not the final snow totals. My final snow accumulation map is exactly the same like the one I published on Saturday afternoon, except for the addition of the teal outline to more specifically denote the types of precipitation.
Timeline
Precipitation will spread from south to north on Sunday morning, between about 5 am and 9 am For the southern half of the state – approximately south of Mercer and Monmouth counties – you will likely see rain or a mixture of melting snow at first. To the north of New Jersey, I expect snow all the time.
The impact of the storm is slightly pushed back. Things are really going to get worse from 9 or 10 am It is when localized strips of heavy snow reduce visibility and cause faster build-up. (Snowfall rates can reach 2.5 or 5 centimeters per hour.) Even coastal areas can turn moderately heavy snow in the early hours of the afternoon. The heaviest things must disappear around 2pm
As the storm system moves away, we will see light to moderate snow ending from west to east between about 14h and 17h
Totals
The same map as last time. Although the mixing potential is a good case for leaning more towards the lower end of the forecast ranges than at the top.
The ideal spot for the storm, approximately along the Turnpike corridor through the interior to the south and center of NJ, should see about 4 to 6+ inches of snow. The “plus” is important – although I don’t think we will have a generalized 8 or 10 inch snowfall, this excessive performance is possible depending on the band structure. (The NAM model was really optimistic about this possibility, even on Sunday morning, so let’s not rule out the possibility of a major snow event yet.)
To the north, you will likely fall from the “torrential snow” strips. Still, 2 to 4 inches it is enough to clean. And it will be especially striking with more than a foot of snow still on the ground due to last Monday’s snow pump.
Along the south coast, I am maintaining a 0 to 2 inch snow forecast. I think that’s where the biggest uncertainty lies in that prediction. Models painted a beautiful snowy scene along the Jersey shore until Sunday afternoon. So there is a chance of more than 2 inches here. On the other hand, temperatures are quite high (43 degrees in Atlantic City and Cape May at the time of this writing). So, I think it’s reasonable to keep both none and some on the table.
Impacts
No matter what falls from the sky, it will be quite unpleasant and sloppy in the middle of the day. This goes a little beyond the “conversation snow”. The trip will be very difficult during the peak of the storm, from mid morning to early afternoon.
Even for those who leave for The big game, the roads may be in poor condition on Sunday night. Hopefully, the teams will be able to control snow removal during Monday morning’s rush hour. I was able to see some schools and businesses delaying their opening on Monday (or becoming virtual) as plowing operations continue.
Meanwhile, wind is not expected to be an issue during the storm. You can find some bursts of more than 20 mph. This will keep the risk of power outages and near-snow conditions low.
And because of the light wind, storms and coastal floods will also not be a problem. With only a few inches of water rising, no tide meter along the Jersey shore comes close to the flood phase.
The extended forecast
Arctic air returns to the Garden State on Sunday night, accompanied by a gust of northwest wind. Low temperatures overnight will drop in half, with chills in the single digits. Brrr!
A series of storm systems will bring us additional photos of the winter weather this week. While it is completely honest, we still don’t have a lot of control over the types of precipitation and potential accumulations. The first boost would be on Tuesday, and it could be mostly rain. Another complex storm from Thursday to Friday can be more impactful, with the accumulation of solid snow on the table.
We will deal with this later. One storm at a time, please.
Coverage Plan
I’m on your radio on Sunday, through the New Jersey Townsquare Weather Network, until our winter starts to subside. I will have regular updates on the web, app and social media throughout the day.
Our news team is also ready to report any problems with power outages, traffic and traffic, closings and cancellations, etc.
Be smart, stay safe and stay warm. And enjoy the snow!
Dan Zarrow is the chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecasts and real-time weather updates.