Joe Douglas can borrow the title for this Jets offseason from NBA superstar LeBron James. This is Douglas’ decision.
The 44-year-old general manager will not make his announcement on a prime-time TV special, but he must find out who his defender will be in 2021, and possibly later, in the coming weeks. Douglas will stay with Sam Darnold for the fourth season, hoping that a new technical team and a better support cast will help him improve? Will he write a No. 2 quarterback overall and negotiate with Darnold? The decision comes with so many layers and can be seen in so many ways that it sets the most fascinating call for an executive and a franchise in New York’s recent sports history.
“It’s the biggest decision of his career,” said former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. “It’s probably the biggest decision for the Jets in, I don’t know, 40 years. It is huge. “
If you get it wrong, the Jets will be looking for a new GM in a few years. Do it right and Douglas will be on his way to bring the Jets back from the jungle they’ve been wandering in for the past decade.
The decision has several layers to examine. For our purposes, let’s put aside the possibility of negotiating with Texas star Deshaun Watson, who at the moment still seems unlikely. We will focus on Darnold against the college quarterbacks, led by BYU’s Zach Wilson.
The Darnold Debate
The Jets drew Darnold No. 3 overall in 2018 with the hope of finding their franchise quarterback. Instead, he has been a confused player. There are moments of brightness interspersed with more pieces that make you scratch your head. Injuries and illness cost him 10 games and prevented him from playing an entire season.
The debate that now rages on Jets radio and Twitter about Darnold is also taking place within the organization. There are some who see an untapped potential that has been withheld by a poor cast around. Others are ready to move on.
It is impossible to defend Darnold using statistics. Since 2018, there have been 42 defenders who have given at least 500 passes. Darnold’s QB rating of 78.6 is 41st out of 42. Only 63.5 for Josh Rosen is lower. Darnold has been intercepted 39 times, the fifth highest number of choices in the past three years.
On the other side of the debate, people point to the fact that Darnold will not be 24 until June and has not received much help in his career. Robert Saleh would be his third coach in four years. Mike LaFleur would be his third offensive coordinator. The franchise has been unstable since Darnold’s arrival. The GM who summoned him, Mike Maccagnan, was fired after Darnold’s first season.
So, there’s the talent around you – or the lack of it. Darnold played with an ever-changing cast of players. This is the number of different players he played with in each offensive position: 15 wide receivers, nine tight end, seven running backs, seven left, five right, five right, four center and four left. Of those 56 players, none made a Pro Bowl like Jet.
Darnold’s coaching is also in question. Former coach Adam Gase’s attack ended in last place in the NFL in total yards in each of the past two years. Gase, who was hired to bring out the best in Darnold, admitted he failed the quarterback. Darnold had a passer rating of 100 or more in seven games in his career. Four of them came in his debut season, three in 2019 and none last year, while he seemed to be regressing.
This leads to the question of how much better Darnold can be in LaFleur’s attack and whether Douglas can improve his attack through the free agency and the draft this year, something that would give hope to pro-Darnold people.
“I think he was sometimes put in difficult situations to develop,” said Matt Bowen, who played seven seasons in the NFL and is now an ESPN analyst. “When you have a lot of top coaches, a lot of players, when you have a shortage of talent around you, it’s sometimes difficult to assess. You have to go back to the strokes. I think Sam Darnold has high-level characteristics in the position. The question for the Jets is: do these characteristics fit LaFleur’s attack? What I think is one of the best offenses today in the NFL. “
Saleh and LaFleur bring Kyle Shanahan’s offense with them from San Francisco. It is an offense seen as a friendly quarterback due to the strong emphasis on movement, gameplay and rollouts. Darnold was always good at movement, and the LaFleur attack could maximize that. There are many coaches and executives in the NFL who closely agree with Bowen and still see the potential of superstar in Darnold and believe that, in the right attack, he can fulfill his potential.
Another factor in Darnold’s decision, however, is finances. Darnold has one year left on his $ 4.6 million rookie contract. There is also a fifth-year option for 2022 that is $ 18.9 million. The Jets are unlikely to choose this option. If they stay with Darnold, it means that they will either have to move on after this year or commit to him with an extension. If they recruited a quarterback, however, they would start with a quarterback in their newbie contract and at least five years of team control.
Many in the league believe that the Jets may have a choice in the second round for Darnold, as well as a choice in the middle of the round this year or next.
“If you’re going to sit here and tell me that we’re going to take a quarterback because we think he’s going to be as good as Sam Darnold, if not better, in the next three years and that redefines our financial schedule, I can’t sit here and be like, ‘ No, this is stupid ‘, especially with financial flexibility, ”said Orlovsky. “But I also know that: if you take a quarterback and he just becomes OK and Sam Darnold goes elsewhere and plays well, woo, good luck.”
The option of college
That would have been simple if the 2020 Jets had not won two games in December. We would be talking about Trevor Lawrence, the unmissable boy, who reached the first place overall. Instead, the image of the quarterback at No. 2 is more blurred.
There is no consensus on. 2 quarterback in this draft. BYU’s Zach Wilson has gained more momentum since the end of the season, but he also played a lineup of cupcakes. Justin Fields of the state of Ohio may have the most impressive features. North Dakota’s Trey Lance is a bit of a mystery after just one game last season and 17 in total in college. Alabama’s Mac Jones won many games with the Crimson Tide, but he had an All-Star team around him.
The Jets draft board will stack with those four quarterbacks … and another one.
“I would put Sam Darnold on the recruiting board,” said Bowen. “Would I say where we evaluate you on the basis of your college and professional tape? If you rank him higher than Wilson and Fields, you stay with him. It’s that simple. If you don’t, you move it. “
The Jets also need to assess what else they can do with choice # 2 if they stay with Darnold. They could exchange it for a package of choices for a team that fell in love with one of the defenders. They could take the best non-quarterback in the draft to help Darnold. It could be a wide receiver like LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase or Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, or it could be Oregon’s offensive attack by Penei Sewell to team up with last year’s first round pick, Mekhi Becton.
“I was never a big fan of Darnold. It is a rotation machine. That’s what he is, ”said Dan Shonka, a longtime NFL scout who is now the general manager of OurLads scouting services. “But that said, I think if I were Joe Douglas, I would put Penei Sewell in that place of attack. You now have some book support devices, as long as Becton can handle it. “
Shonka doesn’t like Wilson like the others. Wilson has shot at media recruitment boards in the past two months. Former NFL defender Chris Simms even qualified him against Lawrence last week. Shonka has reservations about BYU’s quarterback, who defeated him on a weak schedule in 2020. He ranked him as the fifth quarterback behind Lawrence, Jones, Fields and Lance. Shonka also questions Wilson’s durability because of his light 1.8m, 210-pound body and the fact that he has already had shoulder surgery.
“You are listening to the herd mentality out there with Zach Wilson,” said Shonka. “I want to tell you that Zach Wilson may not be in the National Football League. He’s a narrow-shouldered guy. He’s very accurate, smart guy, good anticipation and everything. But he is not a really big guy. “
Orlovsky is a big fan of Wilson, who he said has features that he thinks will be transferred to the NFL.
“Wilson plays a FOMO style of football – fear of losing,” said Orlovsky. “He made me say ‘Holy God’ more than any recorded quarterback this year. There is a lot to like about his game. He has fast hands. He reminds me of [former MLB star] Omar Vizquel. He is very fast with his hands. “
Fields’ trajectory was the opposite of Wilson’s. His popularity peaked in the College Football Playoff semifinals with his performance against Clemson. If the draft had been the next day, it would have been the second choice. But his game has been destroyed since then.
“I think Fields is incredibly talented. He’s deliberate, ”said Orlovsky. “You have to find out if he is going to develop from that, because being deliberate in the NFL is not good now. For a guy who is incredibly athletic, he doesn’t play very fast. Are you confident that he will? “
Bowen believes that part of the deliberate nature of the Fields game is due to the attack by the state of Ohio, which had deep and longer development routes. He argues that Fields used to wait for the receiver, instead of processing slowly.
Bowen said that Fields has skills that cannot be taught.
“Traits are important,” said Bowen. “They have to be important because you cannot create them.”
Lance and Jones also have supporters, but they seem less likely to be candidates for the Jets in second place.
The final decision
Douglas must make his call now, in one of the toughest seasons ever to assess the prospects. He will not be able to have private training or even have dinner with the college players. He will attend Pro Days, starting with Lance’s on Friday, and will debate with scouts and coaches on his way to make the decision that will define the Jets’ near – and possibly long-term future.
Douglas has been in office for 21 months. The next month before the first round on April 29 may be what defines your legacy with the Jets.
“I always think that general managers put a mark on their football team,” said Bowen. “Joe Douglas hasn’t done that yet. So, what will it be? I think that’s it. That is what the decision will mean. ”