The pattern of average, calm weather is about to change as one strong winter storm after another advances towards the region.
The energy of a storm that produced winds with the force of a hurricane in parts of Southern California migrated 2,000 miles across the United States. Forecasting models suggest that your next act may be the most impressive.
The system passed Ozarks on Wednesday night, throwing snow at more than a million people in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Snow was still falling on Thursday morning, where snow totals could reach 3 to 5 inches with up to half a foot possible at altitudes above 1,800 feet.
As the system plunges further south on Thursday, it connects to the moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. This negates one of the two main ingredients needed to produce significant snowfall in the southern United States. The other comes in the form of exceptionally low temperatures that we find behind the front entrance.
Temperatures are expected to drop 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages on Thursday and Friday in the region, setting the stage for snow accumulation for millions as the weekend approaches.
Winter storm clocks are in effect in eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia, western North Carolina and southern Virginia from late Thursday through late Friday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.
The city of Charlotte is on the alert for a shot of snow accumulated from late Friday morning until early Friday afternoon. The central location of low pressure and the amount of cold air you will have to work with will be the limiting factors for Queen City to be the first snowfall of the season.
Contrary to popular belief, blizzards in Charlotte are not uncommon. The city averages about 4 inches of white matter a year, almost the same as Seattle, Washington.
“Charlotte has never gone through an entire winter without at least a trace of snow since the records were kept in 1879,” said CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar.
At higher altitudes, the confidence is much greater that the combination of cold air and available humidity will produce a winter wonderland in parts of the Smokies and Appalachians. Up to 15 centimeters of fresh snow can fall in western North Carolina, in places like Highlands, Asheville and Boone. The ski slopes in the Beech, Sugar and Grandfather Mountain mountains expect 15 to 20 centimeters of new snow. The highest snow totals are expected on the east-facing slopes, as rising east winds will maximize elevation here and squeeze out the most impressive snow totals. As the air is forced to rise, it will cool and condense further, leaving up to 25 centimeters or more of snow behind in these favorable regions of western North Carolina.
Places like Hickory, Winston-Salem and Greensboro can see the accumulated snow starting on Thursday night and continuing on Friday afternoon with up to 2.5 to 5 centimeters. The accumulation of light is also possible as far north as Blacksburg and Roanoke, West Virginia.
Although the winter season is just over two weeks old, it recalls the winter of 2010-11 across the southern United States. That year was marked by numerous cold air attacks and an impressive snowfall.
“Cities like Atlanta and Charlotte recorded above average snowfalls,” said CNN meteorologist Michael Guy. “What makes this remarkable is that the winter of 2010-11 was also a La Niña year, which would normally signal warmer and drier conditions for the region.”
The next round could produce even more widespread snow
Although it is too early to be sure, the models are also suggesting a secondary system that could cover a wider area of the region that extends from Texas, towards the Gulf coast and the southeast. The weekend weather maker is expected to cross the Pacific Northwest on Friday and quickly exit south towards the Four Corners region on Saturday.
Here, some models suggest that the system could approach the Gulf of Mexico, providing enough moisture to create a wintery mess across the Lone Star State from Saturday night to Sunday. The snow blanket continues from Texas, through the South and into New York from Tuesday.
Other models are still not so optimistic about the power of the storm.
And just on Wednesday, many computer models showed the humidity of this storm system as far as South Florida, where it won’t be cold enough for snow.