We know the Oscar candidates, but nobody knows who is watching them

“Nomadland” (Searchlight) and “Minari” (A24), two of the main Oscar candidates in various categories, started their theatrical releases in parallel with premium VOD games. On April 25, we will know how they performed at the Oscars, but we will learn almost nothing about the size of the audience that watched them.

Audience size and box office are not Oscar metrics, but are an important part of the award season narrative. Few will vote for a movie they haven’t seen, and the best way to ensure voters prioritize a screener (or in the old days, move a DVD to the top of the pile) is to increase the interest of others who have seen it seen the movie . The Oscar maneuver is a complex business and there is no clear relationship between audience and awards, but last year viewers of the awards were increasingly confident in the chances of Best Film for the underdog “Parasita” as their box office grew.

Many things are different this year. Oscar’s delay will create a new format compatible with COVID, the play was not essential for eligibility, almost all screenings are virtual and the box office is a shadow of what it was. How can films create a sense of momentum for prizes?

Related

Related

Retrospective for 2019, when the Netflix acquisition “Roma” became a leading contender for several awards, including a serious run for Best Picture, preceded by a three-week movie platform launch. He faced adverse reactions with suggestions from some, including Steven Spielberg, that he should compete as a television. Two years later, watching at home is essential for cinema audiences.

This may be the only Oscar run in history where almost all films will have little or no theatrical performances. After the ceremony, we can learn a lot about what works best to maximize attention and legitimacy. For now, here are the performance data we have about the main competitors.

Niko Tavernise / NETFLIX © 2020

Netflix

Everyone, except one of its main competitors, saw a limited theatrical game, but under Netflix policy, no recipe is known. On-the-spot checks at theaters that screened “The Trial of the Chicago 7” last October showed very few participants.

More relevant is the performance of these films on the website. We don’t know the actual audience, but we do have their charts that list daily ratings. Even these are inaccurate; different days have different levels of viewing.

Here’s what we know:

“Da 5 Bloods”

Spike Lee’s film debuted at the height of movie theaters. On the website, Netflix said that, at the end of July, it had 27 million views at home worldwide. In late November, it was ranked as the most broadcast title at # 16 in 2020. It was film # 1 on its first weekend, dropping to # 6 on the second.

“The Chicago 7 Trial”

Aaron Sorkin’s court drama reached # 2 on his charts, with a total of 10 days on the list. Although it did not rank as high as “Bloods”, it was number 8 in the streamer in 2020 in November.

“Country style elegance”

Ron Howard’s film, with Glenn Close as a candidate, spent 13 days in the top 10 and one day at # 1.

“Mank”

A very weak response to David Fincher’s black-and-white biographical film. He recorded only two days, each at # 10.

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

With Chadwick Boseman as the likely winner of Best Actor and other pending nominations, this marked three days at # 1, but fell quickly with just seven days on the chart.

“Pieces of Women”

Vanessa Kirby is on the list of Best Actress, with her chances reinforced by a strong initial performance. It started at # 1 for three days and was listed for eight days in total.

“A Life Ahead”

Sophia Loren’s drama stayed on the charts for four days, reaching fifth place.

“Malcolm & Marie”

Launched a week ago (February 5), it was No. 1 in the first three days and has been in the top four since then during its opening week.

Amazon Studios

Amazon

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

Amazon does not provide graphics, but in November it was ranked the second streaming title of the year. Nielsen projected that its opening week attracted 5.9 million home views. In comparison, the first “Borat” sold more than 4 million tickets in its opening week.

Amazon did not release data on competitors “One Night in Miami” or “Sound of Metal”.

Disney +

“Hamilton”

Ineligible to Oscar and nominated for a Golden Globe, it is listed as the title seen directly for streaming # 1 until November. Disney got 22 million views in its first month. If extrapolated to the sale of movie tickets, it would be about $ 200 million gross.

“Soul”

17 million views in the first week, but no additional data from Disney.

Hulu

“Palm Springs” broke the record for viewing the site’s opening weekend in July, and in November Hulu ranked it 26th in the year among the films broadcast. Opened in parallel with some cinemas opened via Neon, it raised $ 164,000.

HBO Max

The main candidate “Judas and the Black Messiah” opens this weekend in theaters and on the website. We will obtain box office estimates, with data streaming at your discretion. “The Little Things”, with Jared Leto in the act, raised $ 7.8 million last weekend in North America.

Premium VOD Releases

This model takes many forms, but two titles stand out for this year’s Oscar. Both come from Universal Studios, which took the lead in creating a launch model with a three-week movie window.

“World News”

The western of Tom Hanks has raised $ 11 million in domestic theaters since December 25. He went to the parallel PVOD on January 15th. In the first two weeks, he was the best actor on a variety of charts, both based on the number of rentals and the money earned. It is a strong display, probably representing several million rentals.

“Promising young woman”

From Focus, this specialized title showed real strength. His $ 4.7 million since Christmas Day is impressive under the circumstances and on PVOD he’s been in the top 10 overall since his January 15th launch. Noteworthy: it seems to have gotten stronger in the third week, and not in the second. It looks like a movie that, with more nominations and a strong word of mouth, could benefit greatly from its launch strategy.

Incomplete or to open candidates

A few more films will be eligible before the Academy’s February 28 deadline.

“Nomadland”

The possible Best Picture winner debuted in eight IMAX theaters two weeks ago, expanded last week and will go on for more this week. Searchlight will expand it to a broader run on February 19, the same day that it will be available for broadcast on Hulu. So far, all theatrical box office are under wraps. This is unprecedented for a large studio, but it follows the example of Netflix. A source said that no decision has been made whether the expanded execution will include raw reports.

“Minari”

A24’s top contender debuts on February 12 in several hundred cinemas across the country. It will also be shown for two weeks at the company’s own virtual cinema for $ 20, with a limit on the number of viewers at specific times. As of now, they are exhausted for the first 10 days. (A24 made no decision on the gross report.) PVOD starts on February 26th. At that point, he will share the revenue with the platforms.

“The father”

This is the top contender for Sony Pictures Classics this year, and the distributor is the least aggressive when using home platforms. The show will begin in major cities where possible on February 26 and will expand nationwide on March 12. On March 26, shortly after the nominations, he will arrive at the PVOD.

Lee Daniels biopic, “The United States vs. Billie Holliday, ” is scheduled by Hulu on February 26, with no confirmed presence in the theater at this time. STX has “The Mauritanian,” with a theatrical exhibition starting on February 26th. Sony Pictures Classics debuted “French exit ” with Michelle Pfeiffer on February 12 in a limited season, with more theatrical performances in April. Apple + has “Cherry” in theaters on February 26 and broadcasting two weeks later.

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