This is not how Republicans wanted to start the year.
Roy Blunt of Missouri became the fifth Republican senator on Monday to announce that he will not seek re-election, a wave of retirement that heralds a bad campaign season next year and gives Democrats new hope for preserving their small majority in the Senate.
History suggests that Republicans are still well positioned to claim at least one chamber of Congress next year. But officials from both parties agree that the wave of resignations from the Republican Party will make Republicans’ challenge more difficult in the Senate.
“Whenever you lose a seat, it’s bad news,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler, who worked briefly for the failed Missouri Senate candidate, Todd Akin, almost a decade ago. “Missouri is not necessarily a safe state for Republicans. The Democrats won there. “
The 71-year-old Blunt’s departure is a reminder of how the country’s politics has changed since Donald Trump’s rise. Blunt and his retired Republican colleagues from Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Alabama represent an old guard who fought for conservative policies, but at times withstood the profoundly personal attacks and unequal governance that dominated the Trump era.
Their exits will leave a void that is likely to be filled by a new generation of Republicans more willing to embrace Trumpism – or by Democrats.
Several Missouri Republicans are expected to seek the nomination to replace Blunt, but none will be more controversial than former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned in 2018 amid a sex scandal and ethical investigation. Since then, the Missouri Republican base has joined him, believing that he has been wrongfully prosecuted.
Greitens was considering running for the Republican nomination even before Blunt’s announcement. He is expected to announce his candidacy on Tuesday morning.
Two Missouri Democratic leaders, former Senator Claire McCaskill and 2016 Senate candidate Jason Kander, said they would not run for the seat.
Before the Greitens’ announcement, some Republicans feared that he might compromise the Senate seat if he emerged as the party’s candidate.
Steven Law, an important ally of Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell and CEO of the Senate Leadership Fund, warned that Republicans may be starting to repeat the mistakes of 2010, when the Republican Party lost a majority in the Senate by embracing failed candidates far right.
Law specifically cited Greitens’ impending announcement.
“We have an opportunity to win back the majority,” said Law. “But in 2010, that opportunity was lost on the Senate side because of ineligible candidates who were nominated.”
In 2010, tea party favorite Christine O’Donnell defeated a longtime Republican congressman in the Delaware Senate primaries before losing to an overwhelming general election after reports of personal financial difficulties, questionable use of campaign funds and allegations of that she “got involved in witchcraft.”
Two years later, in Indiana, Richard Mourdock defeated Senator Richard Lugar with six terms in the 2012 Republican primaries, but imploded after a debate in which he said the rape pregnancy “is something God intended”. In Missouri, Republican candidate Akin lost after insisting on a local talk show that women’s bodies have ways to prevent pregnancy in cases of “legitimate rape”.
In the decade since the Akin disaster, Missouri’s policy, like that of the nation, has evolved in a way that gives both parties opportunities.
States like Missouri, Ohio and Iowa, recently considered undecided states, are moving away from Democrats. At the same time, previous red states, such as North Carolina and Georgia, are distancing themselves from Republicans.
Missouri has not elected a Democratic senator since McCaskill defeated Akin in 2012. Trump won the state last November by 15 percentage points. Trump beat Ohio, where Republican Sen. Rob Portman will not seek re-election next year, by 8 percentage points. The former president won by the same margin in Iowa, where 87-year-old Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is considering retiring.
Democrats are expected to be more competitive in North Carolina, where Trump won a victory by just 1 percentage point, and in Wisconsin, if Republican Senator Ron Johnson fulfills his campaign pledge not to pursue more than two terms.
Democrats have not lost any candidates for retirement, but are defending vulnerable candidates in Georgia and Arizona, among others.
They have no margin for error. Republicans will claim a majority in the Senate in the last two years of President Joe Biden’s term if they get at least one additional seat next November.
The White House party traditionally suffers significant losses in the first half-term election of a new president. President Barack Obama’s Democratic Party, for example, lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate in 2010.
Democrats are hopeful that Trump will become an involuntary ally in 2022. The former Republican president has pledged to play an active part-term role, mainly by supporting pro-Trump candidates in the primary elections. This leaves little room for well-established Republicans like Blunt, who are popular across the state.
“The challenge for Republicans will be to hit bottom in the Republican primaries,” said Morgan Jackson, a leading Democratic strategist based in North Carolina. “It’s not about what you say, it’s about how loud and angry you say it. This is a very different view of the world. “
Jackson said it “is a safe bet” that Republicans will win a majority in the House, but is optimistic that Trump’s meddling in the Senate primaries will help limit Democrats’ defeats.
“It may not be a good cycle, but it may not be a bad cycle,” he said.
JB Poersch, who heads the PAC of the majority of the Democratic allied Senate, noted that Republicans are focused on the country’s cultural wars, while Democrats are sending billions of dollars to the American working class affected by the pandemic. That contrast will help Democrats, he said.
“There is an economic argument from the working family that Democrats can still make in the middle of the country, in places like Missouri and Ohio, and keep them competitive,” he said.
Meanwhile, Blunt predicted the political success of Republicans in Missouri and beyond during a press conference on Monday. He also reflected on the 2010 election, when Democrats were punished across the country after embracing Obama’s fiscal stimulus and health care reform.
“I think 2022 will be a great year for the country and I think it will be a great year in this race for the Senate,” Blunt told reporters. “The Republican Party will be fine.”