On January 6, pro-Trump protesters stormed the Capitol building in Washington, DC Prior to that, many in the crowd attended a rally organized by the president and gathered in front of the Capitol. Many videos and photos of the people on the Capitol surfaced, often showing people without masks or facial covers and close to others who also lacked a mask. Some health experts think that this riot could be a super-disseminating event for COVID-19.
Large mass meetings are not always overwhelming events. Many people gathered in 2020 for Black Lives Matter security protests, some events totaling thousands or tens of thousands. In protests, organizers often encouraged people to wear masks, and people who had supplies for masks walked through the crowd offering them to those who didn’t. The volunteers also distributed hand sanitizer to anyone who wanted to. Health experts believe there is no evidence that Black Lives Matter events can be superspreader events.
The Capitol riots are a different story and are visually discernible. Yesterday’s events could have been a super-propagating event.
“It certainly could be,” said Tara Smith, professor of epidemiology at Kent State University, in an email to Changing America. “From what I saw in photos and videos, you had a large congregation of people who have been in close contact for a long period of time and almost universally exposed. I saw lots of pictures of people coming and going on buses too, also without a mask, and circulating in hotel lobbies. “
The Capitol scenes suggest that many of the people did not follow public health guidelines.
“Many protesters shouted, wore no masks and there was little or no social distance – all actions that allow COVID to spread easily. It is possible that this is an over-disseminating event, ”said infectious disease epidemiologist Beth Linas in an email to Changing America. “Most worrying is that many protesters were not from DC and are probably coming home and could bring COVID with them (and they could have brought it to DC too).”
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If the protesters are now returning home throughout the county, they may be bringing the coronavirus with them.
“If only a small percentage of them are positive for the virus, it can lead to considerable spread, as we have seen in other events, such as the Sturgis rally,” says Smith. The Sturgis rally was a mass motorcycling event that took place over the summer in South Dakota. The event lasted 10 days and led to at least 51 primary cases and 21 secondary cases in neighboring Minnesota, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These may not be all cases related to the Sturgis event, as it represents only one state’s data and cases may be underreported.
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However, most of the protesters were outdoors, and this may have prevented the spread of disease.
“We have never seen convincing evidence of an increase in cases after the [Black Lives Matter] protests during the summer. Based on that, I’m skeptical that yesterday’s events will be a significant factor in the increase in broadcast that we’ll likely see in the coming weeks due to holidays and other social gatherings, ”said Jennifer Nuzzo, who is an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, in an email to Changing America. “That said, the protests in the summer were outdoors, most of the participants wore masks and the number of cases in the US was less than now. Therefore, this can increase the risk of transmission that occurred yesterday. “
No one can say for sure whether yesterday’s events were a super-propagating event, but it may well be one. “Thousands of protesters flocking to the United States Capitol while more Americans die every day from COVID-19 than at any time during the pandemic, jeopardizing public health efforts to slow the spread of the virus, “said doctor Seema Yasmin in an email to Changing America. “Many protesters at the US Capitol and similar protests at the State Capitol of California and elsewhere did not wear masks as they gathered in large numbers and shouted at the police officers. They endanger the health of officers and others around them. “
For updated information on COVID-19, check the websites of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. For updated global case counts, check this page maintained by Johns Hopkins University or the COVID tracking project.
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