ATLANTA (AP) – When Republican Kelly Loeffler of Georgia and Democrat Raphael Warnock advanced to the second round of the US Senate on January 5, they faced the immediate challenge of winning over the 2 million voters who chose one of 18 other candidates in the November election.
Research shows that they have been very successful, and this may give Loeffler, the incumbent, a small advantage.
Republican Representative Doug Collins took third place in the November vote, which ended with Republican candidates winning 48,000 more votes than Democratic candidates. In the second runoff election in Georgia, US Republican Senator David Perdue started with an even bigger lead, having won 88,000 more votes in November than Democrat Jon Ossoff. Since he didn’t get the majority, however, Perdue was forced to run.
Participation can be the deciding factor.
As of Wednesday, nearly 2.1 million voters voted, almost at the same pace as the November 3 general elections. It is unclear how the Christmas holiday will affect the pace of voting. In-person early voting runs through December 31 in some counties.
One thing that helps voters line up is the decision of candidates from both disputes to compete for tickets, with joint appearances and announcements. J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said the joint effort helped Warnock to involve Democratic voters.
“He and Ossoff did a better job of functioning as a ticket,” said Coleman. “I think, in general, this will benefit Warnock and help him consolidate some of his support.”
With candidates running for tickets, parties are unlikely to share seats. Two victories would put Democrats in control of the U.S. Senate, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris breaking the tie 50-50. A split or two GOP victories would keep Republicans in control.
Deborah Jackson, a former mayor of the Atlanta suburb of Lithonia, took fourth place in November, runner-up Democratic behind Warnock. She benefited from being a black woman, a known quantity in the Democratic stronghold of DeKalb County and the first Democrat listed on a ballot for so long that Warnock had to remind supporters to go all the way to find his name.
“I had a tangible and practical experience,” said Jackson. “I think some people were interested in that.”
She said some people were offended that state and national Democrats tried to make way for Warnock, but said she still supported him without reservation.
“Democrats need to be in control of the Senate, or at least there needs to be a balance,” said Jackson.
At least one of Jackson’s supporters agrees. Laura Durojaiye of Stonecrest said she already voted for Warnock.
“I think he will get all her votes,” said Durojaiye, saying he thinks Warnock is someone who will learn in the Senate and support his priorities in addressing climate change and social inequality.
Shane Hazel, the libertarian who won the key share of the vote that forced Perdue and Ossoff to a runoff, said his voters could stay out of the runoff, telling Hazel “they will never vote for anyone out of fear again”.
One of the most voted counties in the state is Rabun – in the northeast corner of Georgia – where President Donald Trump and Perdue won 78% of the vote.
“I am convinced that Democrats could rule Mother Teresa and get 20%,” said Ed Henderson, secretary of the Republican Party of Rabun County.
As in other counties in his congressional district in northeastern Georgia, Collins was the most voted in the special Senate elections. “This was Collins’ country,” said Henderson.
Collins, however, has been a great supporter of Loeffler and Perdue.
Although nearly 40% of Rabun’s registered voters have already voted, Henderson said he fears Trump’s relentless attacks on the integrity of Georgia’s presidential election will undermine Republican participation in the country, citing the “divine reverence” that residents have for the president
“My biggest problem in this election cycle is that there is a distrust of the system,” said Henderson, saying that a handful of radical Republicans told him they were out of the election, saying they believed Trump was cheated, despite little credible evidence irregularities.
Henderson is also concerned that Loeffler has never been in his county, so far from Atlanta that many watch television from other states.
“It would be very helpful if they came here in person and told our voters that they would like to receive our vote,” said Henderson of the Republican candidates.
Democrats have their own problems. Early voting is delayed in Georgia’s smaller urban areas, including Savannah, Augusta, Macon and Columbus, and the total Democratic vote has been disappointing in rural areas.
“Democrats have really been struggling to get black voters in rural areas of the state,” said Coleman. “Will Democrats be able to do well enough in rural areas of the state?”