Villanova vs. North Texas Odds
Despite the loss of Villanova’s best player at Collin Gillespie, the Wildcats have overcome the underdog of fashion at Winthrop.
Justin Moore’s health was paramount after he suffered an ankle injury at the end of the regular season. Moore managed 15 points in 37 minutes, while Villanova limited Winthrop to 36% of field shots.
North Texas got the unlikely surprise because of Purdue in overtime. Mean Green overcame the Boilermakers by 17 to 8 in the extra period and ended the game with a sequence of 11 to 0.
Despite 20 offensive rebounds, the Boilermakers hit just 41% in the 2-point range. Purdue was just as cold from the perimeter.
North Texas remained consistent in its hot shots from the outside, hitting 9 of 21 long-range shots. This is Coach Grant McCasland’s first NCAA tournament and the first game of the second round of North Texas in the program’s history.
When northern Texas has the ball
Mean Green loves a slow pace, ranking 327th at the pace set in the attack.
Northern Texas is 26th in the country in percentage of 3-point shots and has the largest distribution of long-distance points. The key player to watch is Javion Hamlet, as the senior is among the top 100 in the country in assist rate and free throw percentage.
Zachary Simmons may be the player to be targeted in the props, as Villanova does not have a real rim protector.
Although North Texas has one of the best effective field goal numbers in the country, Mean Green does not reach the free throw line very often. They occupy 283rd place in the free-throw rate, but have a decent 74% pitch for charity.
McCasland’s squadron must continue to burn from the outside to survive and move forward.
When Villanova has the ball
Wildcats are looking for an additional offensive identity in the post-Gillespie world.
Four players scored double digits against Winthrop, but a percentage of 3 points and lost free throws persists. The internal attack did not disappoint, with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl leading the scorers.
Feeding the pole was the strategy of coach Jay Wright, and this will continue against a team from North Texas that is in 155th position on average.
Villanova ended the season with a heavy distribution of points from outside the arc, as Jermaine Samuels and Caleb Daniels may continue to have more attempts in the adjusted attack.
Villanova is the best team in the country in offensive twists, as evidenced by Winthrop not registering thefts or blockages.
Analysis and choice of bets
Villanova is the 267th in defensive theft rate, making this a game that Hamlet can have maximum efficiency.
There should be no problem for Green Mean’s attack to execute the slow pace of the midfield and seek a clean 3-point shot. Northern Texas was on fire outside against Purdue, and that is likely to continue against the Wildcats.
Villanova is 242nd in the season in defense of 3-point shots and 328th in blocks. This equates to a high number in the North Texas shooting quality department.
While Villanova continues to hit the high post with Robinson-Earl, Mean Green has fouls to find Abou Ousmane in relief from Simmons.
North Texas is 13th in the defense of 2 points, which means problems for a Villanova team that will depend on the interior after Gillespie’s injury.
North Texas will keep this close in its attempt to make its first Sweet 16.
To choose: North Texas +6.5 (Play +6).
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