BANGKOK – According to the rules of the Communist Party of Vietnam, its chief is to leave at 65 or after two terms. The country’s dogmatic leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, would not qualify for a new appointment on any of the charges.
But that did not stop the party from consolidating its government by concluding its congress once every five years on Monday, giving it a third term in an effort to project unity and contain more pragmatic opponents.
Trong, 76, in poor health after 10 years at the helm of the party, was reappointed as secretary general in one of the few remaining communist dictatorships in the world. Known for his conservative ideological stance, Trong made combating high-level corruption a priority and presided over a time of sustained economic growth and national success in containing the coronavirus.
Under his leadership, Vietnam is expected to maintain a foreign policy of balancing Chinese and American interests, while maintaining control of the party at home, while continuing to suppress dissent through the imposition of long prison sentences.
“The main message is that the party will cling to power at all costs,” said Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Center for Security Studies in Asia-Pacific Daniel K. Inouye in Honolulu. “I don’t expect any major changes in the direction of Vietnam’s foreign or economic policy in the next five years.”
The Communist Party of Vietnam rules the nation of almost 100 million people and has governed for more than 45 years since reunification. The leadership of the one-party state is divided into three positions: the head of the party, a president who acts as head of state and a prime minister who directs the government. Since 2018, Mr. Trong has served as party leader and president.
The party promotes a version of state capitalism that propelled Vietnam to economic growth of 2.91% last year, despite strong headwinds from the coronavirus pandemic. This has declined from more than 7% in the previous two years, but it is among the highest growth rates in the world.
Vietnam is among the most successful nations in containing coronavirus, with strict border controls, mask use, contact tracking and isolation of infected people. Before a recent outbreak, he had gone almost two months without detecting any cases of local transmission and reported only 1,817 cases and 35 deaths.
A new study by the independent Lowy Institute in Australia ranked Vietnam in second place in the world, behind New Zealand, in the treatment of the first nine months of the pandemic.
In China, Vietnam maintains strong but occasionally hostile relations with its gigantic communist neighbor to the north, which seeks to expand its influence in the South China Sea. Analysts predict that Vietnam’s relations with China will remain robust, but that Vietnam will continue to seek better relations with the United States to contain China’s growing influence in the region.
Giving Mr. Trong a third five-year term to deal with these issues as secretary-general meant going against the party’s own rules that limited him to two terms and waiving the age limit for him for the third time.
“The party wants to project an image of unity, solidarity and strength to avoid internal strife between various factions,” said Tuong Vu, an expert on modern Vietnamese history and politics at the University of Oregon.
Mr. Trong represents a conservative Marxist-Leninist faction within the party, which is under increasing pressure from more pragmatic communist leaders from various factions.
He had chosen a favorite subordinate as his designated successor, but the party rejected his nominee. Trong chose to remain as secretary general, rather than allowing the leader of a rival faction to access the top office.
“Basically, it means the failure of the party chief to me,” said Vuving. “He needed to pass the baton to another conservative candidate, but his choice was not popular with members of the Central Committee.”
Vuving predicted that Vietnam’s next leader would be less doctrinal than Trong, as leaders of more pragmatic factions in important positions continue to compete to succeed him.
“He is the last conservative to become secretary general. He will break free after he is gone, “said Vuving, calling Trong” a transition leader. “
The week-long Hanoi party’s congress, a highly anticipated ritual, ended on Monday, the day before, when many members left to deal with a new coronavirus outbreak in the northeastern part of the country.
The outbreak of new cases, which may include patients with the most contagious variants found in Britain and South Africa, is the most serious so far in Vietnam. In the past four days, he reported 266 new infections.
But Vietnam has reaped the economic benefits of its overall success against the pandemic. It is benefiting from a shift in manufacturing from China to other countries as large international companies seek to diversify their operations and avoid American tariffs. Foxconn, for example, is building a $ 270 million factory to assemble Apple phones and laptops in Vietnam.
“Even though they are a Communist Party and very conservative in Marxism-Leninism, in economic policy they are an avid globalizer,” said Vuving.
The government maintains power in part by imposing draconian prison sentences on journalists and critics who speak out against it. In the months leading up to the party’s congress, it carried out severe repression.
In January, three journalists – including Pham Chi Dung, founder of the Association of Independent Journalists in Vietnam – were sentenced to 11 to 15 years in prison. Another prominent journalist, Pham Doan Trong, was arrested in October on charges of making and disseminating propaganda. She faces up to 20 years in prison.
Phil Robertson, the deputy director for Asia at Human Rights Watch, said he did not foresee an end to the suppression of free speech with Trong remaining in power.
“The re-election of the hardliner Nguyen Phu Trong means that the ruling Communist Party is doubling its repression of proponents of greater democracy and human rights in Vietnam,” he said. “This congress shows how few political reforms are possible in today’s Vietnam, which remains one of the most authoritarian governments in Southeast Asia.”
In addition to serving as party leader, Mr. Trong assumed the presidency in 2018 with the death of the incumbent, Tran Dai Quang. Trong is expected to step down as president later this year when the National Assembly’s rubber stamp ratifies the new government leaders chosen by the party.
In this scenario, the current prime minister, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, 66, who lost his candidacy for the party’s general secretary, will become president, a position of greater prestige, but with less power than that of prime minister.
Phuc, who is considered to be more pragmatic than Trong, has compiled a highly successful track record, but has failed to garner enough support in part because he is from southern Vietnam. Northerners have long dominated key leadership positions.
Trong, who seems to be walking with some difficulty and supposedly suffered a stroke, nevertheless gave a 75-minute speech on the opening day of the congress, in which he praised the country’s economic development and the control of the coronavirus.
There is no formal process for filling his position if he leaves office before the end of his five-year term, but the Central Committee must choose a new secretary-general from among senior leaders.
“This can create a crisis because of all the uncertainties surrounding this situation,” said Vu.