Vaccines and stimuli increase consumer sentiment in the US

Preliminary data collected in the University of Michigan consumer survey showed that respondents felt much more optimistic in March.

The consumer confidence index rose to 83 points, compared to 76.8 in February. Although it is still below the level of a year ago, it was stronger than experts predicted.

Action Economics chief economist Mike Englund called the number a “heavy leap”.

Notably, the poll was conducted before President Biden signed the stimulus bill on Thursday and reflects only an expectation of more government aid.

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“Consumer sentiment increased in early March to its highest level in a year due to the growing number of vaccinations, as well as the widely expected approval of Biden’s relief measures,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist at Consumer Research .

Even though all socioeconomic groups were more optimistic this month, the biggest improvements were concentrated among those in the bottom third of the income distribution, as well as among respondents aged 55 and over, Curtin said.

Respondents also increased their assessment of current economic conditions, as well as their expectations for the future, according to the data.

The new stimulus package includes direct checks to qualified individuals, with the intention of increasing spending in the coming months.

Economists have warned that inflation may rise significantly as the economy reopens and Americans reopen their portfolios.

The survey also found rising expectations for higher inflation, as well as for mortgages and other higher loan rates for next year.

Rising inflation may be a sign that the controlled economy is recovering faster, but if prices rise too quickly, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. This dynamic has been the bogeyman on Wall Street in recent weeks, raising bond yields and periodically weighing on stocks.

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