Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi / Bloomberg
Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi / Bloomberg
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The Trump administration has downgraded its strategy to ensure continued dominance over China, which focuses on accelerating India’s rise as a counterweight to Beijing and the ability to defend Taiwan against an attack.
National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien announced on Tuesday the publication of the document, entitled “U.S Strategic structure for the Indo-Pacific. ”Approved by President Donald Trump in February 2018, it provided” comprehensive strategic direction “for U.S. actions over the past three years and was launched to show the US commitment to” keeping the Indo-Pacific region free and open for a long time in the future, “O ‘Brien said in a statement.
“Beijing is putting increasing pressure on Indo-Pacific nations to subordinate their freedom and sovereignty to a ‘common destiny’ envisaged by the Chinese Communist Party,” O’Brien said in an expanded statement declaration. “The US approach is different. We seek to ensure that our allies and partners – all who share the values and aspirations of a free and open Indo-Pacific – can preserve and protect their sovereignty. “
The document presents a vision for the region where North Korea is no longer a threat, India predominates in South Asia and the United States works with partners around the world to resist Chinese activities to undermine sovereignty through coercion. He assumed that China will take “increasingly assertive” measures to compel unification with Taiwan and warns that its dominance of cutting-edge technologies, such as artificial intelligence, “will pose profound challenges for free societies”.
China said the report “made the ‘China threat’ theory sensational” and showed the United States “was against its own promise on the Taiwan issue”.
“The content only proves the US’s evil motives for containing China and sabotaging regional peace and stability,” Zhao Lijian, spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, told a news conference on Wednesday. “We need to ensure that Asia-Pacific is a stage for China and the United States to enhance mutually beneficial cooperation. It should not become an arena where a zero-sum game takes place. “
Where a US-China conflict could occur in the South China Sea
While the timing of the release just a week before President-elect Joe Biden takes office raises questions about why, the Trump administration’s actions to contain China in Asia have largely enjoyed bipartisan support. Biden officials who entered spoke about the need to work more with allies and partners against China, which is also a key part of the strategy – particularly in strengthening security ties with Australia, Japan and India.
Rory Medcalf, professor and head of the National Security College at Australian National University, said the document shows that US policy in Asia was driven by efforts to “strengthen allies and fight against China”. But he noticed that the strategy was so ambitious that “failure was almost guaranteed” on issues such as disarming North Korea, sustaining “primacy” in the region and finding an international consensus against harmful Chinese economic practices.
“The declassified structure will have lasting value as the start of a government project as a whole to deal with strategic rivalry with China,” wrote Medcalf in a posting to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute research group. “If the United States takes this long-term dispute seriously, it will not be able to choose between putting its house in order internally and projecting power in the Indo-Pacific. You will need to do both at the same time. “
The main highlights of the report include:
China
- It assumes that China “intends to dissolve US alliances and partnerships in the region. China will explore the voids and opportunities created by these reduced ties. “
- “China seeks to master cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence and biogenetics, and use them in the service of authoritarianism. Chinese dominance in these technologies would pose profound challenges for free societies. “
- “China will take increasingly assertive steps to compel unification with Taiwan.”
- Acting to “combat Chinese predatory economic practices that freeze foreign competition, undermine the US’s economic competitiveness and stimulate the Chinese Communist Party’s aspiration to dominate the 21st century economy.”
- “Build an international consensus that China’s unfair industrial policies and trade practices are hurting the global trading system.”
- “Work closely with allies and countries with similar interests to avoid Chinese acquisition of military and strategic capabilities.”
India
- Desired outcome: “India’s preferred partner on security issues is the U.S. The two cooperate to preserve maritime security and combat Chinese influence in South and Southeast Asia and other regions of mutual interest ”.
- “India remains prominent in South Asia and takes a leading role in maintaining the security of the Indian Ocean.”
- “Accelerating India’s growth and its ability to serve as a security provider and Lead Defense Partner; solidify a lasting strategic partnership with India supported by strong Indian military. “
- “Strengthen the capacity of emerging partners in South Asia, including Maldives, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, to contribute to a free and open order.”
Taiwan
- “Develop and implement a defense strategy capable of, but not limited to: (1) denying China the sustained air and maritime dominance within the“ first island chain ”in a conflict; (2) defense of the nations of the first island chain, including · Taiwan; and (3) dominate all domains outside the first island chain. “
- “Enable Taiwan to develop an effective asymmetric defense strategy and resources that will help ensure its security, freedom of coercion, resilience and the ability to engage China on its own terms.”
North Korea:
- Objective: “Convince the Kim regime that the only way for their survival is to abandon their nuclear weapons”.
- “Maximize the pressure on Pyongyang by using economic, diplomatic, military, police, intelligence and information tools to paralyze North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs, stifle the flow of currency, weaken the regime and set the conditions for negotiations aimed at reversing its nuclear power and missile programs, ultimately, achieving complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Peninsula. “
- “Do this: (1) by helping South Korea and Japan to acquire advanced conventional military capabilities; (2) bring South Korea and Japan closer to each other. “
Southeast Asia
- Objective: “Promote and strengthen Southeast Asia and Asean’s central role in the region’s security architecture and encourage it to speak with one voice on key issues.”
- “Promote a model of integrated economic development in the Indo-Pacific that provides a reliable alternative to One Belt One Road; create a task force on how best to use public-private partnerships. “
– With the help of Philip Heijmans, Iain Marlow and Jing Li
(Updates with China’s response from the fifth paragraph.)