New York police officers detain a protester at a protest during the 2020 presidential elections in New York.
Photographer: Stephanie Keith / Bloomberg
Photographer: Stephanie Keith / Bloomberg
With the global economy still struggling with the Covid-19 crisis, the Eurasian group sees the divided US as a key risk this year for a world without leadership.
“In previous decades, the world would expect the United States to restore predictability in times of crisis. But the world’s most prominent superpower faces great challenges of its own, ”said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and President Cliff Kupchan in a report on the main risks for 2021.
Starting with the difficulties faced by the Biden government in a divided USA, the report signals 10 geopolitical, climatic and individual risks that could hamper the global economic recovery. An extended impact of Covid-19 and K-shaped recoveries in developed and emerging economies is the second largest risk factor cited in the report.
Biden will have a hard time gaining new confidence in US global leadership as he struggles to manage domestic crises, the report said. With a large segment of the United States casting doubt on its legitimacy, the political effectiveness and longevity of its “asterisk presidency”, the future of the Republican Party and the very legitimacy of the US political model are in question, he added.
“A superpower divided in half cannot return to business normally. And when the most powerful country is so divided, everyone has a problem, ”said Bremmer and Kupchan.
The report lists the following main risks in 2021:
| Main risks 2021 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States Presidency | 6 | Cyber conflict |
| two | Covid-19 extending through 2021 | 7 | Peru |
| 3 – | Implications of zero net emission targets | 8 | Cheap oil |
| 4 | US-China tensions | 9 | Europe after Merkel |
| 5 | Global data control | 10 | Latin America |
The report warns that the pandemic and its broad impact will not go away when vaccination spreads. Uneven recoveries, variation in access to the vaccine and insufficient stimulus plans will raise debt levels, leave workers displaced and fuel opposition to incumbent leaders.
For the U.S., this will increase the polarization that fueled support for Donald Trump. For emerging economies, tightening debt can lead to financial problems, the report said.
Some concerns are more likely to be “false” risks that have been exaggerated, the report adds. This includes relations between Biden and “Trump’s fellow travelers”, such as Recep Tayyip Erdogan from Turkey, Jair Bolsonaro from Brazil, Boris Johnson from the United Kingdom and Binyamin Netanyahu from Israel. The Biden government will engage in common interests and leaders will adapt to the new status quo, the report said.
Fears about a global reaction against big US technology and an Iran-US confrontation are also seen as minor risks.