US Coronavirus: US Covid-19 numbers may be decreasing, but experts project tens of thousands of deaths in the next 3 months

Another 91,000 Americans are expected to lose their lives due to the virus by June 1, according to the latest forecast from the University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment.
“The most uncertain factor in the trajectory of the epidemic over the next four months is how individuals will respond to constant drops in cases and daily deaths,” wrote the IHME team. “Faster increases in mobility or reductions in mask use can easily lead to an increase in cases and deaths in many states in April.”
The spread of Covid-19 variants also threatens to cause another outbreak of cases – particularly, variant B.1.1.7, first identified in the United Kingdom. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention previously warned of the variant’s projected “rapid growth” in the United States in early 2021, adding that it is likely to become the country’s predominant variant in March.
The IHME team wrote that, although variant B.1.1.7 is currently responsible for less than 20% of infections, that number could jump to 80% at the end of April.

That’s why experts say the United States should also intensify its tests: not only to track infections and antibodies, but also variants.

“We are late in testing from day one,” said Kathleen Sebelius, former secretary of Health and Human Services, on Saturday. The United States now needs to “focus on the tests we need to identify who has the disease and then on the serology tests that will tell us more about antibodies and what type of variant is circulating.”

5.5% of the US fully vaccinated

Although vaccinations are in progress, they are unlikely to help the United States achieve herd immunity levels anytime soon.

So far, more than 42.8 million Americans have received at least the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to data from the CDC.

More than 17.8 million people have been fully vaccinated. That is about 5.5% of the US population.

Herd immunity is achieved when the majority of the population becomes immune to an infectious disease – either through infection and recovery, or through vaccination. Dr. Anthony Fauci estimates that between 70 to 85% of the United States’ population needs to be immune for collective immunity to take effect against the virus.

The IHME team wrote that it does not expect the country to achieve herd immunity before next winter.

Is it time to postpone the second dose of coronavirus vaccines?

“The model suggests that we should have a peaceful summer,” IHME director Dr. Chris Murray told CNN on Friday. “But we know that Covid is really seasonal, so when the next winter comes, we will need to have a much higher level of protection to stop Covid in its path than we are likely to achieve.”

To speed up obtaining at least the first doses of weapons, the United States should consider postponing the second dose of vaccines, another expert said.

“Everyone needs a second dose, there is no doubt about it,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health. “I think the point is, now we are going to wait four weeks between the first and the second dose. And if it were six weeks or eight weeks or 10 weeks – not much more than that.”

Their comments came the same day, two senior US officials – Andy Slavitt, senior adviser to the White House Covid-19 response team and Fauci – said they did not think the US should delay or skip the second dose of the vaccine. Jha says his suggestion is a compromise to get more high-risk people vaccinated quickly.

The teachers’ union calls the CDC guidelines a ‘safety guardrail’

In the midst of continuing vaccination challenges and concerns over the rise of another case, local leaders are also working to see what a safe return to school is like.

CDC's Covid-19 school orientation leaves some quiet, others confused
The school reopening guidelines released by the CDC this month focus on five Covid-19 mitigation strategies: the universal and correct use of masks; physical distance; wash hands; cleaning facilities and improving ventilation; and contact, isolation and quarantine tracking.

The vaccine and the tests are “additional layers” of protection, the agency said.

On Friday, Director of the CDC. Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at a briefing at the White House that, with these strategies, schools can be opened, no matter how many viruses are spreading through the community.

“There are opportunities for personal learning at all stages of … community outreach,” said Walensky. “I would really invite schools to lean over and see what is needed … to try to get more and more children back to school.”

Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, told CNN on Saturday that the agency’s guidelines are a “protective grid” for teachers – and in a recent survey, most educators said they would feel comfortable going back to school with the help of tests, vaccine prioritization and mitigation strategies in place.

But so far, only about 28 states and Washington, DC, have started allowing all or some teachers and school staff to receive the vaccine.

And schools face another challenge when it comes to reopening for face-to-face classes, Weingarten added.

When schools implement some of these measures, including smaller classes and social distance, they need more space and more educators, Weingarten said.

“The reason you have so many places that are hybrid is because they have no space and no educators,” she said. “The real question now is how we can help transform places that are remote.”

CNN’s Maggie Fox and Lauren Mascarenhas contributed to this report.

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