US Coronavirus: Covid-19 cases have decreased dramatically. These factors will determine how the pandemic will unfold from here, says a group of experts

US Coronavirus: Covid-19 cases have decreased dramatically. These factors will determine how the pandemic will unfold from here, says a group of experts

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Another 130,000 Americans are expected to die from the virus in the next three and a half months, according to the latest model from the University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment.
And while Covid-19’s numbers may be trending in the right direction now, there are four main factors that will determine how the next few months unfold, IHME said in a briefing accompanying its model.
The first two are what are likely to help the pandemic numbers continue on a downward trend: increased vaccinations and falling seasonality – referring to the lower transmission pattern that is likely in the US during the spring and summer months.

“Two factors, however, can slow down or even reverse the declines that have already started,” said the IHME team.

The first factor is the spread of variant B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK and experts warned that it could become the dominant strain in the United States in the spring. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that more than 980 cases of the variant have so far been detected in 37 states.

The second factor, according to the IHME team, is “an increase in behaviors that favor the transmission of COVID-19”.

“The transmission was contained during the winter through the use of a mask, decreased mobility and prevention of high-risk environments, such as meals indoors,” said the team. “As the number of daily cases decreases and vaccination increases, behaviors tend to change towards an increased risk of transmission.”
Vaccines - despite the variants - are still good news
That is why experts say that now is not the time for the US to let its guard down. But a growing list of governors is easing Covid-19’s restrictions.

On Friday, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said the state lifted Covid-19’s restrictions on youth sports, allowing parents or guardians of young athletes to participate. The same day, the governor of Maine issued an executive order expanding the meeting boundaries for houses of worship.

Indoor meals – with a capacity limit – resumed in New York City before the Valentine’s Day holiday, with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, announcing on Friday that he would extend the closing hours of bars and restaurants to 11 pm on the entire state.
A nurse administers the COVID-19 vaccine at Kedren Health on Thursday, February 11, 2021 in Los Angeles, California

‘One step closer to winning the war against COVID’

Despite concerns that remain, officials are hopeful that, as vaccinations continue to increase, they will begin to make their mark in the course of the pandemic.

So far, about 37 million Americans have received at least their first dose of the two-part Covid-19 vaccines available on the US market, data from the CDC show. About 13 million Americans are fully vaccinated, according to the data.
Covid-19 vaccination is critical for people with underlying health problems, but access varies from state to state

“Our vaccine supply is increasing, the rate of positivity is decreasing and we are getting closer and closer to winning the war against COVID,” said Cuomo in a statement, referring to New York vaccines.

The state has so far administered 90% of the first dose of vaccines it received from the federal government and more than 80% of the first and second doses, the governor said.

Almost a third of American adults are undecided about the Covid-19 vaccine. Some say that friends and family can influence them

In California, authorities have announced that millions of people will be added to the list of vaccination priorities, including residents “at high risk with developmental disabilities and other disabilities” and residents with serious underlying health problems. The plan, which will start in mid-March, extends ages 65 and over to ages 16 to 64 who are in those categories.

But the announcement comes as the state continues to face challenges, including “vaccine shortages,” said California Health and Human Services Agency secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly. This scarcity of supply forced several Los Angeles mass vaccination centers to close last week.
The move to vaccinate more prioritized groups – especially people with comorbidities or underlying health problems – has not been uniform across the country, an analysis by CNN showed.

In some states, people with underlying health problems are not yet eligible to receive the vaccine.

In the states where they are, there is variation in the conditions that make someone eligible and what is needed to confirm that condition. And where these groups are eligible for a vaccine, counties may have different timeframes for how quickly these groups will be vaccinated.

A new challenge for the weekend

Meanwhile, parts of the United States face another challenge that is delaying vaccinations: the climate.

Winter storms extend from coast to coast, affecting 100 million people

Federal officials expect shipments of the Covid-19 vaccine to Texas to be delayed this week because of a severe winter storm, said Texas Emergency Management Division chief W. Nim Kidd.

“Our vaccines that are scheduled to arrive on Sunday, Monday, are unlikely to arrive until Wednesday, Thursday, so we will see delays in getting the vaccine to the state,” said Kidd.

Some local outdoor vaccination facilities also closed before the storm, added the chief.

“The administration of vaccination at home, as long as it is still safe to drive there, will continue,” said Kidd.

Meanwhile, in Oregon, the Covid-19 mass vaccination site at the Oregon Convention Center will be closed on Sunday due to the weather, according to a tweet of Kaiser Permanente NW. The center is located in Portland, where snow and rain have caused widespread power cuts.
Those who had an appointment will be contacted to reschedule, another tweet said.

As the CDC recommends that you travel

Meanwhile, as authorities continue to monitor ongoing vaccinations and the spread of variants, there are doubts about whether there may be changes in travel requirements.

CDC is not recommending a Covid-19 test requirement prior to domestic travel
Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg said recently that the Biden administration was considering a rule that would require negative results from the Covid-19 test for domestic air travel.
But the CDC told CNN that the agency currently does not recommend a Covid-19 test requirement before domestic air travel.

“At the moment, the CDC is not recommending the mandatory starting point test for domestic travel,” according to the CDC statement. “As part of our close monitoring of the pandemic, in particular the continued spread of variants, we will continue to review public health options to contain and mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in the travel space.”

The CDC also added that it does not recommend travel at this time.

“If someone needs to travel, they should have a viral test 1 to 3 days before the trip,” said the agency. “After the trip, taking the viral test 3-5 days after the trip and staying at home and being quarantined for 7 days, even if the test results are negative, is a public health measure recommended to reduce the risk.”

And just because someone is vaccinated, it doesn’t mean they have a free pass to travel and don’t follow the directions, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned earlier.

“It is not a good idea to travel, period,” said Fauci. “If you absolutely have to travel and it is essential, then obviously, it would be necessary to do that. But we don’t want people to think that because they were vaccinated, other public health recommendations just don’t apply.”

Michael Nedelman, Lauren Mascarenhas, Elizabeth Cohen, Melissa Alonso Rebekah Riess, Hollie Silverman, Stephanie Becker, Cheri Mossburg, Kristina Sgueglia and Evan Simko-Bednarski contributed to this report.

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