The worst of the current wave of coronavirus infections seems to be behind us, with the seven-day continuous average of new cases decreasing in almost all parts of the country. Nationally, this average peaked on January 8, with almost 260,000 new cases; the February 3 figure of 136,442 is equivalent to a 47% drop from the peak.
Some parts of the country, including the Upper Midwest, are experiencing greater drops in new cases than others. Four states in the region – Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Iowa – saw the daily average of cases drop by 80% or more.
The places with the sharpest falls tend to be small counties where the overall case count is relatively small, leading to large fluctuations in the data. Restricting the data to about 600 counties that had at least 100 daily cases at their recent peak shows that cases have dropped 60 percent on average.
Most of the areas on this map that show minor decreases experienced their winter spikes later, which means they didn’t have that much time to descend. For example, the Midwest peaked in mid-November, while the Eastern Seaboard peaked in mid-January.
The current decline remains more pronounced in the midwest. In Hennepin County, where Minneapolis is located, daily cases have dropped from 1,200 to about 200. Wayne County, where Detroit is, has had a similar drop from 1,200 to 220.
Even while cases in the United States are generally on a downward trend, some parts of the country are still reporting new cases at a higher rate than during the worst peak they experienced last year. This map compares current rates with previous peaks, defined here as the highest daily average before October 1st. For some states that saw peaks at the start of the pandemic, when widespread testing was not yet available, these initial peaks may be underestimated.
Most places on the map above experienced a relatively small increase in cases reported during the first wave of the pandemic at the beginning of last year. Although on a downward trajectory now, the current number of new cases is greater than anything they experienced during the first six months of the coronavirus crisis.
Maine, for example, had relatively low case counts until November, when cases began to rise before it peaked in late January, almost 12 times the state’s peak level last year. Even so, the current daily case count in Maine is moderate compared to some other parts of the country – like Texas, whose rate is three times that of Maine when adjusted by the population.
In the state of New York, areas outside of New York City were not hit as hard as the city was in the spring of last year, but they faced a second brutal wave this winter. Hawaii is the only state in the country where the first wave was more severe than the second wave in terms of reported cases.
Daily average of cases in the USA
In California
16,269
–64%
+ 62%
It remains to be seen whether the new variants of the coronavirus circulating in different parts of the country will trigger another outbreak of cases. The most contagious variant first identified in the UK has now been detected in more than half of the states. On the other hand, as more people are vaccinated, transmission rates may drop, preventing a sudden increase. Although both vaccines currently approved in the United States require two injections, studies show that even one dose offers strong protection against the virus.