US Coronavirus: America is at a crossroads in this pandemic with Covid-19 deaths close to 500,000

US Coronavirus: America is at a crossroads in this pandemic with Covid-19 deaths close to 500,000

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“I am concerned about this variant – variant B.1.1.7 (first found in the UK),” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

“If that happens, the numbers will start to increase again. There is no end to the death toll, unless we can vaccinate before that.”

Where are we with the vaccines

More than 43.6 million Americans have received at least one dose of their two-dose vaccines, according to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
About 18.8 million were fully vaccinated. That’s about 5.7% of the US population – much less than the estimated 70% to 85% of Americans who would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity.
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Some states are still struggling with vaccine delays after severe weather hit much of the country last week.

But the United States is likely to be caught in the middle of this week, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“Obviously, it’s a setback because you would like to see the steady flow of vaccines coming into people’s arms, but we can catch up,” Fauci told NBC on Sunday.

To speed up vaccinations, some experts have suggested postponing second doses of the vaccine to put more first doses into people’s arms.

Both vaccines on the American market – developed by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna – require two doses, the second of which is intended to be administered 21 days and 28 days after the first, respectively.

Fauci told CNN on Sunday that the United States is currently on schedule for vaccines that is supported by clinical trial data.

“Science points directly to continuing what we know … from the clinical trial,” he said.

Good news (for now) about cases and hospitalizations

Across the country, rates for new Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing.

The number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 fell for the 40th consecutive day, according to the COVID Screening Project.

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Daily deaths fell 24% last week compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

And new daily cases fell 23% in the same period, according to Johns Hopkins. (But testing has also decreased by 17%, according to the COVID Tracking Project.)

“I am very hopeful about where we are,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health. “We now have some obstacles ahead.”

These obstacles include several worrying variants of the coronavirus.

About 1,700 cases of variant strains first detected in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil have been reported in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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But that number is probably nowhere near the actual number of variant cases in the U.S., since the U.S. lagged behind dozens of other countries in sequencing the genome by 1,000 Covid-19 cases.
CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said the United States has increased sequencing to find variants and will continue to do so.

The vast majority of variant cases so far involve the highly contagious variant B.1.1.7 detected for the first time in the United Kingdom.

Experts at the University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment said over the weekend that while strain B.1.1.7 is likely to account for less than 20% of current infections in the U.S., that number is likely to increase to 80% in the end of April .

‘Now is not the time to let your guard down’

What happens next depends largely on personal responsibility and how many people will be vaccinated, said the IHME team.
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“Managing the epidemic in the next four months depends critically on intensifying vaccination, trying to increase the fraction of adults willing to be vaccinated by more than three quarters and strongly encouraging continued use of a mask and avoiding situations where transmission is likely, such as meals in indoors, going to bars or internal meetings with people outside the house “, wrote the team.

The American Medical Association, the American Hospital Association and the American Nurses Association have also asked Americans to help fight the pandemic.

“With new, more contagious variants of the virus circulating in the United States, now is not the time to let your guard down and reduce the measures we know will work to prevent illness and death – wearing masks, practicing physical distance and washing your hands,” said a statement. set.

Why could we wear masks next winter too

Some Americans have discovered an unexpected advantage in wearing masks in the winter – they protect against extremely cold air, not just the coronavirus.

And Americans can use them next winter, when some health experts say Covid-19 could explode again.

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Fauci hopes that will not happen, he said, adding that it is “possible” for people to wear masks in 2022.

There may be other ways in which everyday life will be different from the past, said infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist Dr. Celine Gounder.

“I think we are seeing some new normals. I think the handshake, for example, is probably going away,” she said.

“I think masks in the cough / cold / flu season in the winter months would make a lot of sense. It clearly isolated Southeast Asian countries from some of the worst things, understanding the importance of wearing masks.”

For those who have already been vaccinated, health experts say you should keep wearing a mask. That’s because it takes weeks for vaccines to take effect and because vaccines don’t guarantee that you won’t pass the coronavirus on to others.
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“It is estimated that about 70% of Americans should be vaccinated before we get collective immunity through vaccination,” said CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen. “This is the point at which enough people have immunological protection so that the virus does not spread any more.”

And delaying the transmission of the coronavirus also reduces the chances of the virus mutating further.

“The evidence was very convincing last March or April that wearing uniform masks would reduce the transmission of this disease,” said director of the National Institute of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, to Axios on HBO on Sunday.

The politicization of masks has probably led to many unnecessary deaths, he said.

“A mask is nothing more than a medical device that saves lives, and yet it has been categorized into all sorts of other forms that were not factual, scientific or, frankly, dangerous,” he added. “And I think you can argue that tens of thousands of people died as a result.”

CNN’s Amanda Watts, Keith Allen, Jessica Firger, Naomi Thomas, Michael Nedelman and Paul Vercammen contributed to this report.

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