Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken proposed a United Nations-led peace conference in Turkey with the aim of forming an inclusive Afghan government with the Taliban and establishing a three-month reduction in violence, leading to a ceasefire.
In a letter to President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan requesting his “urgent leadership”, Blinken signaled that the Biden government had lost faith in the tentative negotiations between the Ghani government and the Taliban. The unusually hard-hitting letter, in which Blinken asked Ghani to “understand the urgency of my tone,” reflected American frustration with the Afghan president’s often uncompromising stance in stalled peace negotiations.
The letter’s existence was confirmed by a US official in Washington and the Afghan government.
Negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban began in September as part of a February 2020 agreement between militants and the United States. But the negotiations hesitated on issues such as exchanging prisoners and reducing violence.
Blinken wrote that the United States had not decided whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 American troops from Afghanistan by May 1, as described in its deal with the Taliban. He expressed concern that “the security situation is going to get worse and that the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains” after the US withdrawal.
The State Department declined to comment on the letter, but said in a statement that “all options remain on the table” in relation to the withdrawal of American troops.
“We have not taken any decision on the position of our force in Afghanistan after May 1,” the statement said.
A withdrawal would create enormous security challenges for the Ghani government and its overburdened security forces.
The United Nations-led conference in Turkey would include envoys from the United States, China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and India “to discuss a unified approach to support peace in Afghanistan,” wrote Blinken.
The letter’s existence was reported after Zalmay Khalilzad, the American peace envoy, delivered an outline of US policy options to the Ghani government and Taliban negotiators last week. The proposals, designed to reinvigorate stagnant peace negotiations, included a roadmap for a future Afghan government with representation from the Taliban, a revised Afghan constitution using the current one as an “initial model” and terms for a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.
The New York Times obtained a copy of the proposals, dated February 28, which Afghan officials confirmed was delivered by Khalilzad last week.
Significantly, the proposals called for national elections after the establishment of an “Afghanistan transitional peace government”. The Taliban opposed the elections, dismissing them as Western interference.
The proposals also include guaranteed rights for women and religious and ethnic minorities, and protection for a free press. The Taliban violently repressed women and minorities and did not allow independent media when the group led Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001.
Taliban negotiators said they support women’s rights within the constraints of Islamic law – the same restrictions that militants have cited to ban women from schools and workplaces.
The draft presented by Mr. Khalilzad proposed a Higher Council of Islamic Jurisprudence to advise an independent judiciary to resolve conflicts over the interpretation of Islamic law. The proposals recognized Islam as the country’s official religion and recognized the importance of “Islamic values” in a future Afghan state.
The draft proposed that the government and the Taliban each appoint seven members to the High Council, with a 15th member appointed by the Afghan president. Similar arrangements have been proposed for a commission to prepare a revised constitution and for a Joint Ceasefire Monitoring and Implementation Commission.
The proposals also called for the Taliban to remove “its military and official structures from neighboring countries”. Pakistan offered a sanctuary for Taliban commanders and fighters who crossed Afghanistan and allowed militants to maintain a political council in the country.
Both Pakistan and the Taliban are unlikely to agree to such a proposal.
An introduction to the document said that it “establishes principles for governance, security and the rule of law and presents options for the division of power that can help both sides reach a political agreement that will end the war”.
The Biden government said the Taliban had failed to live up to its commitments to reduce violence and cut ties with extremist groups such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. But Washington was also impatient with Ghani, who refused to consider an interim government that would almost certainly end his second five-year term as president.
Violence increased in Afghanistan last year, with the Taliban’s persistent territorial gains and attacks on besieged government forces. The Ghani government blamed the Taliban for a series of murders targeted at government officials and supporters, members of the security forces and their families, civil society defenders and journalists.
The Taliban used violence as a lever in the peace talks in Doha, Qatar, dragging on the negotiations while awaiting a decision by President Biden on the withdrawal of troops on May 1.
Blinken’s letter expressed impatience with the pace of negotiations, saying that the United States intended to “move issues more fundamentally and quickly towards an agreement and a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire”.
Asfandyar Mir, an analyst at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, said the Biden policy outlined in Blinken’s letter was “focused, aggressive, ambitious in scope, but also carries enormous risks”.
He added: “It has a lot of moving parts and time is not on the side of management, so it can fail. There may be resistance from some US allies “, especially since” the Taliban has shown limited interest in meaningful engagement “.
Mir said the letter indicated that the Biden government sees Ghani as an impediment to peace. “He is not in the mood to give in to his provincialism,” he said.
Blinken’s letter, first reported by independent channel TOLO News in Kabul, said that the proposed three-month reduction in violence was aimed at avoiding a spring offensive widely anticipated by the Taliban, while giving the negotiations a chance for a fresh start. .
“I urge you to consider the proposal strongly,” the secretary told Ghani.
Blinken previously indicated that American troops would not remain in Afghanistan indefinitely. Many analysts say that Afghan security forces, already depleted by high rates of casualties and desertions, would be hard-pressed to contain the Taliban without the presence of American troops – even if Washington and coalition allies continued to provide financial aid and military equipment. .
“I must also make it clear to the President that, as our political process continues in Washington, the United States has not ruled out any options,” Blinken wrote.
Adam Weinstein, a researcher for the Middle East at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, said the Biden government considered Ghani a necessary partner and an obstacle to a peace deal.
“This letter sends a strong message to Ghani to play ball or get out of the way,” he said.