Iran, however, seems wary of Trump’s intentions in his final weeks in office, given his focus on putting pressure on Tehran with sanctions and other measures that have further damaged the Islamic Republic’s economy.
“Trump will have full responsibility for any adventurism on his way out,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote on Twitter on December 24.
To increase tension, there was a rocket attack on December 20 at the US embassy complex in Baghdad by groups of Shiite militias supported by Iran. No one was killed, but the volume of rockets fired – possibly 21, with about nine landing. at the Embassy complex – it was exceptionally large. Days later, Trump tweeted that Iran was alert.
“Iran-friendly health advice: if an American is killed, I will hold Iran accountable. Think about it,” Trump wrote on December 23. He added: “We have heard rumors of additional attacks against Americans in Iraq.”
Because of the potential for escalation that could lead to a broader war, the United States has sought to prevent Iran from further attacks. Strategic calculations on both sides are further complicated by the political transition in Washington to a Biden government that can seek new ways to deal with Iran. Biden said, for example, that he hopes to return the US to a 2015 agreement with world powers , in which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for lifting international sanctions.
In announcing Wednesday’s bomber flight, the head of the U.S. Central Command said it was a defensive move.
“The United States continues to deploy combat-ready capabilities in the area of responsibility of the U.S. Central Command to deter any potential adversary and make it clear that we are ready and able to respond to any aggression directed at the Americans or our interests,” said the Gen. Frank McKenzie, the commander of Central Command. “We do not seek conflict, but no one should underestimate our ability to defend our forces or to act decisively in response to any attack.”
He did not mention the name of Iran.
Prior to the announcement, the US military official who spoke on condition of anonymity said that US intelligence had detected recent signs of “rather substantive threats” from Iran, and that they included planning for possible rocket attacks against US interests in Iraq in connection with the one-year anniversary of Soleimani’s murder.
The United States is in the process of reducing the presence of troops in Iraq from 3,000 to about 2,500. Trump ordered the reduction to be achieved by January 15; authorities say it is likely to be reached as early as next week.
The United States has also detected signs that Iran may be considering or planning “more complex” and broader attacks against American targets or interests in the Middle East, the American military official said, adding that this represents the most worrying signs since the days immediately after Soleimani’s murder. The official cited indications that advanced weaponry has been flowing from Iran to Iraq recently and that Shiite militia leaders in Iraq may have met with officers from Iran’s Quds force, previously commanded by Soleimani.
The U.S. official said Iran may be eyeing economic targets, watching the September 2019 missile and drone attack on Saudi oil processing facilities. Iran denied involvement, but was blamed by the United States for the attack.
In the past few weeks, the US military has taken a series of measures designed to dissuade Iran, while publicly emphasizing that it is not planning, and has not been instructed, to take unprovoked measures against Iran.
Last week, a U.S. Navy guided-missile submarine made unusual transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. In early December, a pair of B-52 bombers from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana flew what the military calls a “presence” mission over the Gulf – a demonstration of US strength and a sign of US commitment. USA with the region, but not an attack mission. The flight was repeated this week, with two B-52s flying nonstop from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota and returning home on Wednesday after crossing the west side of the Gulf.
Tensions with Iran increased with the death in November of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian scientist named by the West as the leader of the Islamic Republic’s extinct military nuclear program. Iran blamed Israel for the murder, but American officials are concerned that any Iranian retaliation could harm US interests.