US and Mexico restart relations in the post-Trump era, even as AMLO pokes Biden

WASHINGTON – Just days after President Joe Biden’s tenure at the White House, leaders in Mexico and the United States are looking to restart a relationship that is not only critical to US foreign policy, but also critical to the economy, security and Texas culture.

The restart is not just about going beyond former President Donald Trump, the Republican who loved to intimidate Mexico for everything from immigration to trade and border security.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador – who had a good working relationship with Trump despite many political differences – has also complicated relations in recent months by showing unmistakable coldness towards Biden. The Mexican president stood out as one of the last foreign leaders in the world to congratulate the Democrat on his victory.

“That was very foolish,” said Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-El Paso, calling the contempt “unhappy”.

AMLO, as he is known, further confused and frustrated some employees with more substantive actions. Lately, he has caused controversy in the United States, for example, by signing a law to restrict American drug trafficking agents in Mexico and attacking American officials who accused the former Mexican defense secretary of working with a Mexican drug cartel.

While some claim that López Obrador, elected in 2018, is simply trying to prevent the new U.S. government from meddling in Mexico’s complicated domestic affairs, political and business leaders on both sides of the border are now trying to smooth out a difficult transition.

The nature of the relationship requires this.

Martha Bárcena, the outgoing Mexican ambassador to the United States, described the two countries as “an elderly couple who have to find a way to always learn to get along”. Bárcena, who will leave her post next month, added that “divorce is not an option”.

“There will be ups and downs, but we will have to get along,” said the ambassador, who will be replaced by Esteban Moctezuma, a former senator who was Mexico’s secretary of education. “But at the end of the day, we must get along, find common interests, gain ground.”

Texas, which shares a 1,254-mile border with Mexico, has a lot at stake.

The state’s location puts it at the forefront of an ongoing migration crisis in Central America and at the center of perennial debates on border security. It is estimated that two-thirds of all binational trade will also come from Texas – almost $ 400 billion in 2019 alone – supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs in sectors ranging from manufacturing to commerce and energy.

Communities along the Texas-Mexico border are economically and culturally stitched together, which means that issues like the COVID-19 pandemic transcend any line on the map.

“Real, substantive and constructive re-engagement between the US and Mexico is critical for Texas,” said Tony Garza, former US ambassador to Mexico under former President George W. Bush and now an advisor to White & Case at Mexico City.

The Trump era, defined by the president’s mercurial approach, tested these binational ties.

The businessman launched his campaign in 2015 with a speech that discredited many Mexican migrants as rapists and criminals. He made the border wall his campaign promise, boasting that Mexico would pay for it. He promised to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement, a pillar between the United States, Mexico and Canada that he dubbed “the worst trade agreement of all time”.

Once in office, Trump threatened to close the border and raise tariffs on Mexican products – actions that would have devastated both countries and the Lone Star State in particular.

But Trump did not question Mexico’s endemic corruption, drug violence or the death of Mexican journalists. He did not abandon NAFTA, but instead negotiated a reformulation that mainly preserved and updated the trade pact. Although Trump managed to get Mexico to use his troops to block migrant caravans, he never managed to make Mexico pay for its border wall.

AMLO, while often yielding to Trump’s demands on issues such as immigration, never really got involved in the bluster of his American counterpart.

“He didn’t take the bait,” said Austin Rep. Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who said he was among those who advised Mexican officials not to openly focus on Trump’s harsh rhetoric.

The two presidents, although from opposite ends of the political spectrum, also shared some points in common.

Both promoted blatant nationalism, building passionate bases with their own versions of populism. Both criticized the media as “fake news”, as they maintained their own aggressive pulpits. Both disregarded the COVID-19 guidelines and then contracted the virus themselves.

The relationship still confused many observers.

“I was never able to understand that,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Laredo Democrat who worked with Mexican officials in the AMLO administration and earlier. “I said to his people, ‘I just don’t understand after he called you by all those names’.”

Cuellar recalled how AMLO refused to meet with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other leading Democrats when he visited DC in July to celebrate the implementation of the new North American trade deal, instead of staying at the White House with Trump. and other Republicans.

The Democrat – optimistic, even then, about the White House race – said he warned Mexican officials that there would soon be a new occupant of the Oval Office.

“Now they are working to repair this relationship,” said Cuellar. “Now they are working overtime.”

Biden, despite López Obrador’s nudges, never provoked Mexico or uttered insults on Twitter.

“I have no doubt that President Biden will extend his hand of friendship and collaboration,” said Escobar, the Democrat from El Paso, adding his hope that López Obrador will “repay”.

The US president is experienced in foreign policy and has served as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Biden is also no stranger to Mexico, having led the United States delegation in 2012 to the inauguration of then Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.

Biden fueled optimism by allegedly hiring Roberta Jacobson, a former US ambassador to Mexico and an experienced Latin American expert, to oversee issues related to the southern border of the United States on the National Security Council.

AMLO was also one of the first world leaders that Biden called the White House.

“I am confident that we will be in good hands,” said Alfredo Duarte, president of Taxco Produce, a major importer of Mexican products in northern Texas. “We will have people who really know what they are doing and what is really at stake between the two countries. No more crazy talk. “

But a more engaged US president, although less bombastic, also brings a different dynamic.

Biden, amid criticism from the Republican Party, is already using executive action to unravel some of Trump’s immigration policies, including the so-called “stay in Mexico” program, as US and Mexican officials prepare for another potential increase migration from Central America.

While these moves are likely to be well received by AMLO, it is unclear how Biden can support himself in Mexico – and how AMLO, now with leverage, can respond – if there is another crisis.

Biden can also prove to be more aggressive than Trump would have been in applying environmental and labor provisions that were included in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade agreement restarted, at the insistence of Democratic congressmen.

McCaul, the Republican from Austin, recently dined with Bárcena, the outgoing Mexican ambassador to the United States. She expressed her concern that Biden would try to litigate parts of the deal, McCaul said, telling the congressman to “please make sure that the USMCA remains intact. “

“That was really his strongest message,” said McCaul, a free trade advocate who joined all Texans in Congress to vote in favor of the pact.

AMLO also remains a kind of wildcard, especially if he keeps sending pitches back in Biden’s way.

McCaul feared that AMLO “leans a little more towards the socialist side”, supporting state-owned energy companies at the expense of investments by American companies. Cuellar, in response to Mexican measures to combat drugs, said he reminded Mexican authorities that “the United States is not the enemy”.

Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the United States, said the “central challenge” is whether AMLO seizes the moment to pursue a holistic diplomatic reinitialization or, instead, the pattern for an “isolated and heated relationship in organized cans of foreign policy issues. ”

Bárcena said she generally felt “moderately optimistic” about the relationship between her boss and Biden. But Javier Garza, a journalist in Torreon, Coahuila, and a media commentator on security issues, warned of the prospect that “AMLO nationalism will flourish again”.

“We still don’t know how he is going to react, and that is the problem for a relationship like Mexico-United States that needs certainty,” he said. “Just as we feared Donald Trump’s unpredictability in 2016, now we must fear López Obrador’s unpredictability.”

Benning reported from Washington, while Corchado reported from El Paso.