Iran appealed to the UN Security Council on Thursday to prevent the United States from conducting what it called intensified “military adventurism” in the Gulf and Oman Sea, including sending nuclear bombers to the region, declaring that he did not want conflict, but would make him defend himself if necessary.
Meanwhile, a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the latest intelligence information told CNN on Friday that some Iranian maritime forces in the Gulf have increased their readiness levels in the past 48 hours. Earlier this week, defense officials told CNN that new intelligence showed that Iran is moving short-range ballistic missiles to Iraq.
‘Genuinely concerned’
The flurry of veiled threats, public messages and military stance accelerated in the days leading up to the anniversary of the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, on January 3, a date that American officials fear Iran will schedule with a counterattack.
All of this is happening as Biden prepares to enact his own policies after his January 20 inauguration. The president-elect wants to alleviate Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, resume engagement and return to the nuclear deal with Iran, all measures that the Trump administration is vehemently opposed to – and all reasons, say some analysts, that if Iran acts any kind of attack, it would be carefully calibrated.
“Iran represents a real threat to US national security, particularly during this period of high risk due to the anniversary of Soleimani’s murder,” said Sam Vinograd, a former National Security Council official and analyst with CNN.
However, Vinograd added: “I really think Iran will calibrate any attack associated with this anniversary because they don’t want to fit in before Biden takes office and apparently resumes nuclear talks that would lead to the lifting of sanctions.”
The US Central Command said last week that an attack on the Baghdad International Zone near the US embassy was “almost certainly led by a rogue militia group backed by Iran”. On Friday, Russia’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Association announced that Iran would increase its uranium enrichment to levels reached before the 2015 nuclear deal – a step that is likely to be seen as another provocation.
As the clock progresses to January 3, Vinograd noted, “There is a lot of sabers going on.”
Soleimani’s successor on Friday marked the death of the former Quds Force commander, promising that “those who participated in this murder and crime will not be safe on earth. It is definitive.” General Esmail Ghaani told the crowd gathered for a ceremony marking Soleimani’s death that “what they have seen so far has only been a part of revenge, but they must wait for a harsh revenge. The time and place will be determined by the dear Front of Resistance forces. “
Calling Trump a “foolish man” under the rule of Israel and Saudi Arabia, Ghaani warned that “it is possible, even from within his own home, to come up with someone who will retaliate for his crime”.
Nichols told CNN that tensions are rising at a time when Trump has fired senior civilian leaders at the Pentagon, replacing them with interim officers “who really don’t respond to anyone but Donald Trump”.
“Since there is no transparency and we simply have no way of knowing what the president is doing, I think that should raise some concerns,” said Nichols.
‘Distorted intelligence’
Vinograd raised another concern, telling CNN: “Trump and his team members fabricated or distorted intelligence, including about Iran to serve personal or political goals. It is no secret that attacking Iran has been on President Trump’s wish list for some time. time and with 19 days to go, he may want to go out with a bang. “
Nichols noted that “Iran is a real problem. I mean, the president may well have to do something … The problem here is that Donald Trump, given the way he ruled for four years, simply did not gain the benefit of doubts about these types of actions. ”
Iran called on the United Nations Secretary-General to help ease tensions on Thursday, calling on the United States to be forced to comply with international law and to stop “destabilizing” a “volatile region like the Persian Gulf”.
The letter from Iran’s ambassador to the UN cited the US sending advanced weaponry to the region. The Defense Department sent nuclear-powered B52 bombers to the region on Wednesday after announcing the transit of a nuclear submarine through the Gulf.
The United States also currently has several surface warships in the Persian Gulf capable of firing Tomahawk missiles and 40,000 to 50,000 American military personnel scattered throughout the region, although many are not in direct combat functions, according to the Pentagon.
The Iranian letter said that although “Iran does not seek conflict, our capacity and resolute determination to protect our people, to defend our security, sovereignty, territorial integrity and vital interests, as well as to respond decisively to any threat or use of force against the Iran should not be underestimated. ”
The US official with direct knowledge of the latest intelligence reports said that some Iranian maritime forces in the Persian Gulf have increased their levels of readiness in the past 48 hours, adding that it is not clear whether the movements are defensive or signs of a pending attack on interests from the USA. .
The official said the United States does not believe that Iranian maritime movements are typical of training at sea.
CNN’s Barbara Starr and Richard Roth contributed to this report.