The only good thing about a 47-7 loss in week 16 of a lost season is that it helps your position in the draft. Detroit Lions entered the week out of the top 10 on the draft order, but they will leave Week 16 holding the seventh overall choice.
At the moment, there are only six teams with a worse record than Lions, and four of them are within a single Detroit game. This means that, even taking into account the tiebreakers, Detroit could beat all four teams with a little luck in week 17. Yes, it is perfectly possible – although not so likely – that Lions are choosing third overall in a row previous seasons.
Here’s a look at the updated NFL Draft 2021 order throughout Week 16 outside the “Monday Night Football” game between the 6-8 New England Patriots and 11-3 Buffalo Bills.
(Note: the schedule intensity is listed in parentheses and is provided by Tankathon, which uses the entire 17-week schedule to calculate the strength of the schedule, not just the games played so far.)
- Jaguars: 1-14
- Jets: 2-13
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Texans *: 4-11 (0.542)
- Hawks: 4-11 (0.550)
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Bengals: 4-10-1 (0.527)
- Eagles: 4-10-1 (0.531)
- Lions: 5-10 (0.504)
- Giants: 5-10 (0.506)
- Panthers: 5-10 (0.529)
- Broncos: 5-10 (0.567)
- Cowboys: 6-9 (0.465)
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Chargers: 6-9 (0.490)
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Vikings: 6-9 (0.508)
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49ers: 6-9 (0.544)
- Patriots: 6-8 (0.529)
*The choice of the first round of the Texans is the property of the Dolphins
As you can see, Lions are choosing better than any other 5-10 team due to their easy schedule. What is even more remarkable is that the strength of Lions programming is much easier than any of the four four-victory teams ahead of Detroit in the recruiting order. So, theoretically, if all four of these teams win in Week 17 and Lions lose in Week 17, they will jump to three.
Let’s take a look at the schedule to see how plausible this is.
- Texans over Titans
- Falcons is over Privateers
- Bengals on Ravens
- Eagles over Washington
Unfortunately, all four teams face off against a team currently in the playoff spot. Worse, of those four playoff teams, only one – the Buccaneers – secured a post-season spot. The Ravens, Titans and Washington have work to do, which means that they will be highly motivated on Sunday to avoid an upset.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the New York Giants. Their programming force is close enough to the Lions that they could jump into Detroit in draft order with the perfect storm of results that change the programming force. That said, the Giants have a very viable game against the Cowboys and – believe it or not – New York can still win that division with a win and a loss in Washington.
But how far can Lions fall?
With Vikings out of the playoffs, we should probably prepare for the worst: Lions achieving a meaningless victory in Week 17. If Lions suddenly feel the need to achieve an “inspirational” victory in the end, they may fall considerably in the draft order. Many of the current teams 6 to 9 have brutally easy schedules, meaning that Lions would fall below them if both teams finished 6 to 10. This includes Washington (.464), which is not listed above because it is currently the leader of the division.
Lions can drop to 13th in the order of recruitment. Here’s what should happen:
- Lions beat Vikings
- The giants beat the Cowboys (in addition, NYG takes advantage in SOS)
- Saints win or tie Panthers
- Raiders win or tie Broncos
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Chiefs defeat Chargers
- Vikings gain advantage in SOS
SOS things are complicated and I won’t worry about getting in here.
Here is the basic line. If Lions lose to Vikings, realistically, the minimum they will choose is eight, the maximum they will choose will be three. The most likely location is probably six or seven.
If Lions beat Vikings, it is difficult to say how far they will fall, but there is a very, very good chance that they will be in the top 10.