The UN-sponsored negotiations in Geneva produced a new interim government for Libya, which plans to hold national elections later this year.
It is the first time that the country has had a unified leadership in four years, and the new government will face serious challenges to obtain recognition within the country and among some external actors.
In Libya, there is a mixture of cynicism and hope that the country will be able to endure years of sporadic struggles and divided institutions. A fragile ceasefire has been maintained since October, but the country remains full of mercenaries and armed militias.
On Friday, the dialogue forum with 75 Libyan members elected Abdul Hamid Dbeibah as prime minister and Mohamed al-Manfi, from the east, as head of a three-member presidential council. Musa al-Koni, as deputy representing the south of the country, and Abdullah al-Lafi complete the council.
The goal is to ensure that Libya’s three regions are represented in the government before the elections. The winning slate of candidates won 39 out of 70 votes in the final round, defeating a rival slate by five votes.
UN Special Envoy Stephanie Williams told delegates: “The decision you made today will increase over time in the collective memory of the Libyan people.”
In a sign that some of the losers can accept their fate, Fathi Bashagha, the interior minister of western Libya who had been widely nominated for the post of prime minister, congratulated the winners.
Bashagha, who is close to the Muslim Brotherhood and the coastal city of Misrata, worked hard to garner international support, but joined for the leadership with Águila Saleh, from the east of the country.
Saleh is widely criticized in the West for his role in supporting Gen Khalifa Haftar in the 16-month siege of the capital, Tripoli. At the dialogue forum, Saleh shocked many delegates by rejecting the attack that claimed more than 1,000 lives, simply saying it was time to turn the page.
Wolfram Lacher, a Middle Eastern researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said: “The key heavyweights have emerged as losers in this process. There will be a sigh of relief among many in western Libya who have opposed a purely opportunistic agreement with Águila and Haftar, but that means that the new executive will have very little traction in the east ”.
Former UK ambassador to Libya, Peter Millett, said: “This is not the result that most observers expected. The combination of Águila Saleh as head of the presidential council and Fathi Bashagha as prime minister was the pioneer and was supported by important external actors, such as Egypt.
“The Dbeibah family is controversial and has been involved in corruption charges. There are already voices in the east calling for war. Haftar’s intentions are also unclear. The crucial thing now is that this transitional government be endorsed, both domestically and internationally. “
Generally speaking, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have more influence in the east of the country, while Turkey is the dominant external actor in the west. Turkey supported Bashagha.
The head of the new government faces many potential pitfalls. He must first present his new government and work program within 21 days for approval in the House of Representatives, the Libyan parliament.
If it is rejected, the question returns to the dialogue forum, a body chosen mainly by Williams. There are also doubts as to whether the ceasefire will last, let alone if foreign troops leave the country.
Many will be disappointed that the process has not spawned a new generation of political leaders, but has ended up recycling many of the figures who have proved unable to overcome the regional divisions that dominate the country.