Although variant B.1.1.7 first identified in the UK is currently at a relatively low frequency in the United States, the newspaper says it is doubling every week and a half, similar to what was seen in other countries. The report estimates that this variant is 35-45% more transmissible than the strains that previously appeared in the United States, and is doubling every 10 days in the country.
Last month, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention model predicted that variant B.1.1.7 could become the dominant strain in the United States in March. He estimates that the virus is about 50% more transmissible.
“Our study shows that the United States is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 has quickly become the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 “, the researchers wrote in the study’s prepress, which has not yet been peer-reviewed or published.
In addition to case groups in California, Florida and Georgia, many B.1.1.7 cases in the United States have not reported recent international travel, the report said, suggesting that “significant transmission of variant B.1.1.7 in the community is already underway. course in the USA “
US laboratories are still sequencing only a small subset of coronavirus samples, the newspaper said, so it is unclear which variants are circulating in the country. Without “decisive and immediate public health action,” new and more communicable variants “are likely to have devastating consequences for COVID-19’s mortality and morbidity in the United States in a few months,” warn the researchers.
Helix chairman Dr. James Lu told CNN last week that the company was tracking evidence that cases of B.1.1.7 are on the rise, not just a product of increased genetic sequencing across the country.
“The growth rate here in Florida and southern California looks a lot like the type of growth we saw earlier in the UK and Denmark … where B.1.1.7 became the predominant variant strain very quickly,” he said. Lu.
It is not clear whether the pace of vaccination in the United States will prevent the strain from gaining space in places where it is not yet circulating, he added.
“We are in a race between the vaccine and the new strains,” said Lu.
Dr. Anthony Fauci suggested last week that the United States is not vaccinating people fast enough to stay ahead of new variants. This could hinder the vaccine’s efforts to reduce cases, he told CNN. “If variants and mutations come and start to become dominant, it will avoid some of the vaccine’s effects,” he said.
More than 610 cases of variant B.1.1.7 have been found in 33 states, according to the CDC. Most are in Florida and California. The first case in the United States was announced on December 29, but the first known cases go back to an earlier period. Analysis in the new study suggests that variant B.1.1.7 arrived in the United States as early as late November 2020.
The strain has also been found in at least 80 countries and territories around the world, the World Health Organization said last week.
The United States also recorded five cases in two states of variant B.1.351 first identified in South Africa and two cases in one state of variant P.1 first identified in Brazil.
Michael Nedelman and Andrea Diaz of CNN contributed to this report.