The COVID-19 strain first discovered in the UK is doubling in the US every 10 days, presenting a potential risk of increased cases and deaths in the country, according to a study released on Sunday
A group of researchers estimated that the UK variant, called B.1.1.7, spreads at an increased transmission rate of 35 to 45 percent and is expected to become the predominant strain in the United States in March. The study, released on the medRxiv server, has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a medical journal.
“Our study shows that the US is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 has quickly become the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19” says the study.
Scientists determined from half a million COVID-19 tests and 212 genomes that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) prediction that the United Kingdom strain would become the most prevalent coronavirus variant in the United States in March.
Kristian Andersen, co-author of the study and virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, told The New York Times that “nothing in this article is surprising, but people need to see it”.
Researchers estimate that the UK strain, first announced by the British government on December 20, appeared in the United States as early as November 2020. The first case was confirmed in the USA in Colorado on December 29 and has since spread for at least 33 states, according to the CDC.
The strain first found in the UK has been brought to the United States at least eight times on different occasions, potentially due to increased travel on Thanksgiving and Christmas between the two countries, according to the study.
Using genome sequencing with test results from laboratory testing firm Helix, analysts determined their prediction of how fast the coronavirus variant spread across the United States. Helix was hired by the CDC to inspect samples for the UK strain.
Scientists anticipate that the strain represents a higher percentage of COVID-19 cases in certain states like Florida, where an estimated 4.5% of cases are from the variant.
As a whole, the UK variant is estimated to account for 2% of all cases in the United States, meaning that an additional 1,000 people can contract the strain every day, the Times noted.
The CDC reported 611 B.1.1.7 cases in the United States, but the number is expected to be much higher due to the complicated method for confirming that a case came from a UK strain.
In total, the US accounted for almost 27 million cases and more than 463,000 deaths due to COVID-19, with January having the highest number of deaths and the highest average of hospitalizations for coronavirus than any other month of the pandemic.