UK health experts advise the US to combat the mutant variant

LONDON – Health experts warn that, even with restrictions, the United States is likely to struggle to contain the spread of a highly infectious coronavirus variant, highlighting the importance of taking aggressive measures immediately to protect as many people as possible.

The variant, discovered in the UK and known as B.1.1.7., Has an unusually high number of mutations and is associated with more efficient and faster transmission.

There is no evidence that the mutant strain is associated with more severe disease outcomes. However, as it is more transmissible, it is likely that more people will be infected, which can lead to a greater number of serious cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Scientists first detected this mutation in September. The worrying variant has already been detected in at least 44 countries, including the USA, which have reported their presence in 12 states.

Last week, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the modeled trajectory of the variant in the United States “exhibits rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March.”

The forecast comes at a time when the UK is struggling to control the impact of its exponential growth.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced blocking measures in England on January 5, instructing people to “stay home” as most schools, bars and restaurants have been forced to close. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have introduced similar measures.

The restrictions, which are expected to remain in effect in England until at least mid-February, have been applied to try to reduce the pressure on the country’s already stressed hospitals amid an increase in hospitalizations in Covid.

Government figures released on Thursday said Britain had recorded 37,892 new infections with 1,290 deaths. A day earlier, the UK recorded a historical record for Covid deaths, when data showed that an additional 1,820 people died in 28 days after a positive Covid test.

Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, stressed that it was clear from the UK response that, unless aggressive measures are taken immediately, “the variant will spread rapidly geographically, as well as increasing the frequency. in places where it was established in the community. “

Gurdasani cited findings from a closely observed study conducted by researchers at Imperial College London that showed “no evidence of a decline” in Covid rates between January 6 to January 15, despite England being in blockade, “suggesting that even with restrictions , it is difficult to contain this effectively due to the greater transmissibility. “

Researchers in the study, published on Thursday, warned that UK health services would remain under “extreme pressure” and the cumulative number of deaths would increase rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community was reduced substantially.

“All of this means that the containment window is very short. Given the low active surveillance in the U.S., the variant may have spread more than expected, and the containment policy must reflect that,” said Gurdasani.

“This means rigid containment efforts not just where the variant was identified, but in all regions where it could have spread. And active surveillance with contact tracking to identify all possible cases, while maintaining strict restrictions on breaking transmission chains. . “

To date, the UK has recorded the fifth highest number of confirmed Covid infections and related deaths in the world.

On his second day in office, President Joe Biden announced comprehensive measures to combat the virus, including the establishment of a Covid testing board to drive testing, address supply deficits and direct funds to hard-hit minority communities.

Biden said executive orders showed that: “Help is on the way.” He also warned that it would take months “to reverse this”.

“The key to all of this is to reduce interpersonal interactions and the strategy needs to be basically the same as the previous one, which has worked elsewhere and more,” said Simon Clarke, associate professor of cell microbiology at the University of Reading.

Clarke said that US states need to consider reducing the number of people in retail or leisure environments, for example, and it may be necessary to close bars or restrict their opening hours, given studies that show that the risk of transmission is greater indoors.

“None of the things we do to protect ourselves eliminate risk, none of them make us Covid-proof – all we do is reduce your chances of getting infected,” said Clarke.

“The virus has just retreated in this with this evolutionary step and now it will be even more difficult to reach the same level of protection.”

“Everyone wants to believe that vaccines are the solution and will make a big difference, but it is not the complete solution,” said Kit Yates, senior professor of mathematical biology at the University of Bath and author of “The Math for Life and Death.”

Yates said the new United States government should do everything possible to launch Covid’s vaccines “as soon as possible” to ease the pressure on healthcare facilities, but insisted that this must be part of a multifaceted approach.

Some other measures that US states should consider, said Yates, include encouraging people to work from home whenever possible, maintaining physical distance, improving ventilation within schools, making children wear masks, providing financial support for those who isolate themselves and use effective testing screening protocols.

“These are the boring and horrible non-pharmaceutical measures that no one wants, but the alternative is very scary to think about.”