LONDON (AP) – There is some evidence that a new variant of the coronavirus first identified in southeastern England carries a greater risk of death.
Patrick Vallance said at a news conference that “there is evidence that there is a greater risk for those who have the new variant”.
He said that for a 60-year-old man with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that, for 1,000 infected people, about 10 are expected to die unfortunately.”
“With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, about 13 or 14 people are expected to die,” he said.
But Vallance emphasized that “the evidence is not yet strong” and more research is needed.
In contrast to this uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is transmitted more easily than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transmissible.
Maria Van Kerkhove, technical leader of the World Health Organization at COVID-19, said that studies are underway to examine the transmission and severity of new variants of the virus.
She said that so far “they have not seen an increase in severity”, but that more transmission could lead to “an overburdened health system” and therefore more deaths.
The evidence that the new variant is more deadly is in an article prepared by a group of scientists advising the government on new respiratory viruses, based on several studies.
British scientists said that while initial analyzes suggested that the strain, first identified in September, did not cause a more serious disease, several recent ones suggest that it did. However, the number of deaths is relatively small and lethality rates are affected by many factors, including the care that patients receive and their age and health in addition to having COVID-19.
British scientists point out that the information so far has great limitations and that they do not know how representative the cases included in the analyzes are of what is happening in the country or elsewhere.
One analysis did not find an increased risk of death among people admitted to a hospital with the new strain. In another, the chances of being admitted to a hospital with the new strain compared to the previously dominant strain were no different.
There is a delay in reporting hospitalizations after infection and an even longer delay from infection to death, so authorities expect to learn more in several weeks.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said “there is a big difference in the estimated increase in the risk of death between the different analyzes, although most, but not all, show an increased risk of death,” he said.
Ian Jones, professor of virology at the University of Reading, said that “data are limited and preliminary conclusions. However, an increase in the case mortality rate is certainly possible with a virus that has increased its transmission capacity. “
British officials say they are confident that vaccines authorized for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said the scientists are concerned that the variants identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.
Concerns about the newly identified variants have spawned a series of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from Britain, and the UK has suspended flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be more restrictions.
“We may need to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain recorded 95,981 deaths among people who tested positive for coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The UK is currently in a blockade in an attempt to delay the most recent outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak. Pubs, restaurants, entertainment venues and many stores are closed, and people are forced to stay at home.
The number of new infections has started to drop, but deaths remain agonizingly high, averaging more than 1,000 a day, and the number of hospitalized patients is 80% higher than at the first pandemic peak in spring.
Johnson, who is often accused of making overly optimistic predictions about easing coronavirus restrictions, looked bleak.
“We will have to live with the coronavirus in one way or another for a long time,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when measures could be relaxed.
“At this stage, you have to be really, really cautious,” he said.
Vallance agreed,
“I don’t think this virus is going anywhere,” he said. “It will probably last forever.”
___ AP chief medical writer Marilynn Marchione and medical writer Maria Cheng contributed to this story.
___
Follow the coverage of the coronavirus pandemic AP at:
https://apnews.com/hub/coronavirus-pandemic
https://apnews.com/hub/coronavirus-vaccine
https://apnews.com/UnderstandingtheOutbreak