LONDON (AP) – There is evidence that a new variant of the coronavirus first identified in southeastern England carries a greater risk of death than the original strain, the British government’s top scientific adviser said on Friday – although he has emphasized that the data is uncertain
Patrick Vallance said at a news conference that “there is evidence that there is a greater risk for those who have the new variant”.
He said that for a 60-year-old man with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that, for 1,000 infected people, about 10 are expected to die unfortunately.”
“With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, about 13 or 14 people are expected to die,” he said.
But Vallance emphasized that “the evidence is not yet strong” and more research is needed.
In contrast to this uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is transmitted more easily than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transmissible.
Maria Van Kerkhove, technical leader of the World Health Organization at COVID-19, said that studies are underway to examine the transmission and severity of new variants of the virus.
She said that so far “they have not seen an increase in severity”, but that more transmission could lead to “an overburdened health system” and therefore more deaths.
The evidence that the new variant is more deadly is in an article prepared by a group of scientists advising the government on new respiratory viruses, based on several studies.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that “the conclusion about this likely increase in lethality comes from analyzes made by several different groups, although working with essentially the same data.”
British officials say they are confident that vaccines authorized for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said the scientists are concerned that the variants identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.
Concerns about the newly identified variants have spawned a series of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from Britain, and the UK has suspended flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be more restrictions.
“We may need to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain recorded 95,981 deaths among people who tested positive for coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
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