Stop the printers: you’ll see Leon Edwards inside the octagon tonight.
Of course, as our own Jose Youngs always reminds us, nothing is official until the two fighters are in the cage (and as we saw with Chas Skelly and Jamall Emmers recently, we mean both fighters), but this is the closest Edwards has been to returning to the competition since July 20, 2019. Even though he is not one of the big names Edwards has been asking for, nor is he even the originally scheduled opponent Khamzat Chimaev, you have to imagine the that -being no. 1 welterweight contender is thrilled that Belal Muhammad has chosen to face him in the main event of UFC Vegas 21.
While it is good to believe that UFC President Dana White, when he says Edwards is “100 percent” close to challenging Kamaru Usman with a win on Saturday, “Rocky” must be content to shake off the rust and extend his current streak of wins for nine. Or who knows? Maybe he wins dominantly and follows up with a sparkling post-fight promo that makes it impossible to ignore him. Strange things happened.
With that in mind, we are not going to rule out the possibility of Muhammad stealing Edwards’ thunder. “Remember the Name” has been scraping and scraping its way into the welterweight and a win over Edwards would make it five in a row and nine in his last 10 for Muhammad. We are upset with Muhammad jumping to the front of the line for a UFC title shot.
In another main card action, light heavyweights Misha Cirkunov and Ryan Spann compete to get closer to a top 10 ranking, featherweight Dan Ige tries to slow Gavin Tucker’s move, Jonathan Martinez meets Davey Grant in a cock fighting, flyweight Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau seek redemption, and middleweight Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart seek to return to the winning column.
What: UFC Vegas 21
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, March 13. The preliminary seven-fight card starts at 5 pm ET on ESPN +, with the main six-fight card starting at 8 pm ET also on ESPN +.
Leon Edwards v Belal Muhammad
This should be a good opportunity for Belal Muhammad to show that he deserves to be fighting in the top 10. It must also be a victory for Leon Edwards.
Edwards is better than Muhammad at all stages of the game, whether we’re talking about striking, wrestling or the often overlooked game of conquest. He is as complete as anyone at 170 pounds and, if he were a more powerful finisher, he would have won the chance for the title a long time ago. As it is, he is the guy that no one at welterweight wanted to fight and for good reason.
No one, that is, except Muhammad. When it was announced that Muhammad would fight for the second in a month, it was no surprise, given the opportunity he had before him. Another victory and the top 5 that he coveted for so long is his. He doesn’t have an elite skill, but he does aerobic exercise for days and this is an area that can be a big problem for Edwards.
Remember, it’s been almost 20 months since Edwards’ last fight and it’s not like he’s been able to train in the best way all this time. He had a fight with COVID-19 at the end of last year and we have no way of knowing whether it will have any prolonged effect on his breathing and lung capacity. This is no excuse for Edwards, it is just something to take care of in a fight that looks set to last five full rounds.
I’m in favor of Edwards’ general skill set, and even though he’s not 100 percent this time around, he has the skills to work a night off and pass Muhammad.
To choose: Edwards
Misha Cirkunov vs Ryan Spann
Speaking of fighters who come from long layoffs, Misha Cirkunov competes for the first time since September 2019. The burly Latvian-Canadian beat Jimmy Crute via submission with a prominent Peruvian tie, which probably saved his UFC career, and then lost all of his year 2020 He now faces Ryan Spann, another highly praised light heavyweight contender who seeks to wash away the bitter taste of his first UFC loss.
The old saying “be the first” will decide this. Cirkunov is the top grappler and a submission will come quickly if he succeeds in taking Spann down in the first round. On the other hand, Spann has the upper hand speed, and if he scores Cirkunov early, he should be able to keep up with Cirkunov.
Spann’s quickness made me tilt his direction towards this choice. Watch out for Spann to keep his distance to make it difficult for Cirkunov to prepare for his takedowns, then use smart counters to score a knockout in the first round.
To choose: Spann
Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker
This may be the most fascinating and frantic fight on the card. Dan Ige will want to come and go with Tucker and look for opportunities to put Gavin Tucker on his back, while Tucker will also be looking for openings to score takedowns and strong punches. Ige faced much tougher competition, but the late flowering Tucker may be peaking at the right time.
I believe Tucker’s wave of three fights is real. Therefore, if he sets the tone for this fight with Ige, it will not be due to any failure on Ige’s part; instead, Tucker has a pressure style that is needed to prevent Ige from implementing his best tools. If Ige can turn this into a pure grappling battle, though, I agree with him in that department.
Tucker also has to show that he can maintain a high pace over three rounds, something that has not been an issue for Ige. It is imperative that Tucker get up early on the scoreboard to avoid seeing himself in survival mode, as Ige increases his attack in the final round.
I have Tucker avoiding a close contest.
To choose: Tucker
Jonathan Martinez vs. Davey Grant
Jonathan Martinez’s confidence is soaring right now, and if he has his weight problems under control, he will be a problem with 135 pounds for a long time. He was an absolute sniper in the victory over Thomas Almeida, one of the best strikers in the category.
Davey Grant is the right test for the 26-year-old at this stage of his career. The seasoned Englishman is a grappling expert, which Martinez did not have to face in the UFC. He can also get shot and will put pressure on Martinez as he tries to keep his submission game going.
Unless Grant can vary his approach to the feet, he will be an easy target for Martinez’s timely strike. Martinez is improving quickly and as long as he and his team place a greater emphasis on falling defense for this fight, he must avoid many complicated situations on the ground. Once he starts, he can become the first fighter to hand Grant a knockout loss.
To choose: Martinez
Manel Kape x Matheus Nicolau
Manel Kape’s UFC debut was a little disappointing, given the hype he got out of a successful race with RIZIN, but he has a second chance to make a first impression here. The same can be said of Matheus Nicolau, who is having a second chance after being part of the UFC flyweight reduction in 2018, despite a strong resume in the octagon.
I really like Nicolau’s submission and he is also not ashamed of playing leather on his feet. He will probably want to continue fighting Kape. Nicolau will have problems when his defense is put to the test, as Kape has shown that he is a strong and patient striker in this. He will not rush and let Nicolau drop easily. Kape also has athletics and the ability to slip if Nicholas clings to him.
With regard to Nicolau, who I hope will be an important factor for the flyweight going forward, I see him struggling to hit Kape and, when that happens, he will find that Kape is one step ahead of him standing. .
Kape by knockout.
To choose: Kape
Eryk Anders vs Darren Stewart
I don’t know how much more I can wait for Eryk Anders to happen.
What I mean by that is that the former college football standout has shown a lot of potential since his UFC debut in 2017, but for one reason or another his impressive physical gifts have not translated into consistency in the cage. The authorities put a lot of faith in him, as evidenced by him frequently appearing on the main cards, including two headlining opportunities, and the results were mixed.
This is a situation where I think Darren Stewart’s firmness will be the key to victory. He is not the most exciting middleweight, but his effectiveness in long-range attack and his defense will serve him well against the explosive Anders. I hope Anders will show his usual flashes of offense, which will not be enough to seriously threaten Stewart unless Anders shifts to an extra gear. As it stands, Stewart must be able to weather the storm and make a decision.
To choose: Stewart
Preliminary
Angela Hill won. Ashley Yoder
Charles Jourdain def. Marcelo Rojo
Rani Yahya def. Ray Rodriguez
Nasrat Haqparast def. Rafa Garcia
Cortney Casey defeated. JJ Aldrich
Gloria de Paula def. Jinh Yu Frey
Matthew Semelsberger won. Jason Witt