For Alistair Overeem, it is time to break the pattern of taking two steps forward and one step back.
That’s the plan anyway, as Overeem heads for his fifth consecutive headlining opportunity on Saturday at UFC Vegas 18. He has come this way before in recent years, winning consecutive fights to put himself on the brink of another chance at heavyweight title just to lose – often brutally – it sends him back to the middle of the contenders’ pack.
Former Bellator champion Alexander Volkov is the last fighter to stand in the way of Overeem, a perennial competitor who has the ability to stand and negotiate with the 2010 K-1 Grand Prix winner. If this is really the last racing for Overeem, Volkov may be the challenge that presents a reality check to “The Reem” as he approaches his 41st birthday.
The stakes are also high in the main co-event, with bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen against former lightweight champion and longtime fighter Frankie Edgar. Sandhagen has proved that he is first in class among the current crop of talented 135ers and now wants to add a living legend to his resume. Bet against Edgar at your own risk. The New Jersey native thrived when the deck is against him.
In another action on the main card, lightweight veterans Michael Johnson and Clay Guida try to burst, and flyweight Alexandre Pantoja welcomes RIZIN champion Manel Kape in the UFC, Cody Stamann meets immediate substitute Askar Askar in a fight. featherweight, and lightweight Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush fight for the second time in what could be a potential show robber.
What: UFC Vegas 18
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, February 6. The preliminary seven-fight card starts at 5 pm ET on ESPN +, with the main six-fight card starting at 20 pm ET also on ESPN +.
Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov
Skill by skill, I am in favor of Alistair Overeem in this confrontation.
Striking is Alexander Volkov’s strength for sure, and he is a formidable striking fighter with a 81-inch reach that impresses even at heavyweight. Most importantly, he knows how to use it. Whether he is attacking opponents with jabs or preparing a well-aimed shot, Volkov knows how to thwart and submit his opponents.
That said, Overeem is still one of the most skilled strikers in pound-for-pound MMA. He has been hardened by decades of experience in combat sports and there is nothing he has not seen. It is simply a matter of execution for him … well, that and avoiding the ever-present threat of knockout that comes with the territory at heavyweight.
I actually like the fact that Volkov is more of a late finisher than a quick hitter, because that will be useful for him if he stays behind in the first few rounds, which is what I hope will happen. Overeem will not only be limited to striking, he will use his often overlooked grappling skills to stifle Volkov’s attack and take the fight to the ground where Volkov occasionally fought. It’s wrestling that will help Overeem secure rounds in a fight that I predict will go a long way.
Overeem by decision.
To choose: Overeem
Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar
Regular prediction readers will know that I am a blatant Frankie Edgar fanatic and always, always choose him to win. I chose him to win The Korean Zombie. I chose him to beat Max Holloway. I have been unwavering about this.
Guess what? I’m faltering.
This may seem like a strange pivot, given that Cory Sandhagen does not have the name of recognition of some of Edgar’s previous opponents, but I think he is catching Edgar on time. Even though Edgar has retained much of his speed and endurance at 39, the slightest loss from a stage can cost you in this game, especially when you have a steady stream of promising hungry nipping at your heels.
Sandhagen’s long range and unorthodox attack style will be a nightmare for the smaller Edgar to navigate. To Edgar’s credit, he has always played the role of David and also has a tool to contain Sandhagen: his wrestling. If Edgar turns this into a battle of shuffles and takedowns, he may simply be able to take Sandhagen down and create openings for his boxing up close.
Let’s find out just how good Sandhagen’s takedown defense is, because if he manages to avoid being restrained, it changes the whole face of the fight. I think he stands up and maintains this remarkable duel, which he will win.
To choose: Sandhagen
Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida
Look, we talk all the time about how Michael Johnson is one of the biggest enigmas of MMA, a talented fighter with a litany of notable names on his list of winners, including Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson. Their mental lapses and disappointing losses are well documented. But he must be able to restrain himself against Clay Guida.
“The Carpenter” is a fierce competitor and difficult to knock out, but you also know what he is bringing to the table now in terms of skill. He won’t win a GLORY kickboxing match anytime soon, and his fight, while effective, is also more of a way to gain control than harm. Johnson also has a strong wrestling record and should be able to avoid having to fight on his back for long periods.
This means that it must be played mainly in striking, and you have to like Johnson’s speed and technique. He will box Guida for three rounds, avoid falls and win a comfortable decision.
To choose: Johnson
Alexandre Pantoja vs Manel Kape
The hype is very real when it comes to Manel Kape. Long seen as a dangerous, though inconsistent, fighter, he suffered a break in 2019 with three consecutive knockouts that culminated in Kape claiming a vacant RIZIN cock championship with a victory over the highly praised Kai Asakura. His UFC debut was delayed twice (and his participation proved unnecessary at UFC 256 after successfully weighing in as an alternative to the flyweight title fight Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno), so he’s definitely getting ready to go.
The matchmakers did Kape no favors by matching him with Alexandre Pantoja. Although Pantoja has only won one in the last three games, he has never been finished either and is a prolific finisher in his own right. This is good news for fans waiting for action, as he will not shy away from getting involved with Kape. However, your game plan probably also involves using your excellent fighting skills.
Kape is going to be a guy that nobody wants to fight at 125 for a while, but Pantoja has the ability to counter his attack. The fact that I chose him to win has more to do with how highly I consider Pantoja’s abilities than with any specific deficiencies of Kape.
Pantoja by submission.
To choose: Pantoja
Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar
With less than a week’s notice to Andre Ewell, Askar Askar is a fun stylistic combination for Cody Stamann. He brings a range of almost 70 inches in his UFC debut, as well as an aggressive attitude that is sure to make Dana White happy. Like Stamann, Askar’s first option will be to put the fight on the ground, which should lead to some fun confusions and moments of tension for the veteran bantamweight.
I am inclined to Stamann for the advantage of athletics, as well as for his advantage in the experience of the octagon. He has been on the verge of a top 10 ranking for some time and has not been able to collect the victories, but he is still a big step in the competition for Askar. Having to compete with so little preparation will also hurt Askar’s chances, although the £ 145 fight makes things easier for both men.
Askar will perform well and secure another yellow card in the UFC, next time against an opponent closer to his level of experience, but Stamann wins on points in this round.
To choose: Stamann
Diego Ferreira x Beneil Dariush
The first encounter between Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush was more than six years ago, which makes it almost irrelevant when assessing the chances of each fighter in the rematch. Still, there is some data to be gleaned from Dariush’s victory over Ferreira, even though the two men have improved their already considerable qualities.
The shared fighting experience led to an impasse on the ground when they fought, with Dariush working patiently in the top position and avoiding Ferreira’s submissions. Make sure Ferreira considers himself the one who starts wrestling this time, if only to give Dariush something to think about. Dariush controlled the striking in the first fight, beating Ferreira with the punch while Ferreira chased a deadly shot that never came.
Ferreira became much more complete, the question is: can he win a kickboxing match against Dariush if he gets to that? He made remarkable strides in striking in terms of both effectiveness and creativity. Then again, Dariush is also more comfortable on his feet and has added genuine knockout power to his arsenal. This is such a close fight.
If I have to choose, I will go Dariush, although the margin of victory is less than before.
To choose: Dariush
Preliminary
Mike Rodriguez def. Danilo Marques
Timur Valiev def. Martin Day
Devonte Smith def. Justin Jaynes
Joselyne Edwards won. Karol Rosa
Lara Procópio def. Molly McCann
Youssef Zalal won. Seung Woo Choi
Ode Osbourne def. Jerome Rivera