ABU DHABI, UAE – When Conor McGregor is involved, there is always the potential for hyperbole. When you have such a big star, everything tends to level up – including any comments related to it or an upcoming fight. But let me say that I have been looking forward to this moment since the end of 2016.
If all of this materializes, only time will tell. But I believe that we can finally realize McGregor’s real fighting potential in 2021. If you go back to the end of 2016, McGregor was the lightweight and featherweight champion. He avenged his submission defeat to Nate Diaz. He was not considered the best absolute fighter in the world, but he was on the radar for this honor.
Of course, we all know what happened next. McGregor (22-4), who fights Dustin Poirier in a lightweight title fight at UFC 257 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi (main card at 10 pm ET, buy here at pay-per-view), chased a fight Profitable boxing against Floyd Mayweather in 2017, went through several legal problems, lost a championship fight to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018, didn’t fight in 2019 and competed once in 2020 for less than a minute.
And frankly, all of that is not difficult to understand. McGregor reached levels never before seen in fame in 2016 and profited from Mayweather’s fight. That fight was fun and earned McGregor more than any MMA fight would pay, but it was also a farce and a monumental pivot of what he could have achieved in MMA.
It’s crazy to think: McGregor has been in the UFC since 2013, and it can be said that he competed in his most natural weight category just twice. His reduction to featherweight was manageable, but brutal. And he is nowhere near the average size of a welterweight. McGregor is a lightweight, and we saw him fight there only in 2016, when he won the Eddie Alvarez belt, and in 2018, when he failed to win him back against Nurmagomedov.
Look, we know who McGregor is as a celebrity and a public figure. It had an obvious impact on entire combat sports industry, as well as the sports media industry as a whole. And we know a lot about him as a fighter too. We know that he is extremely talented. We know that he was the first “champion-champion” of the UFC. We know he is good – really great.
But we don’t know how big it really is. This is the part that remains to be defined. He never deviated into the world from a “fight for money” with Mayweather and more or less disappeared from the competition later, what could he have done? Defended the lightweight championship several times? Challenged by a third belt? He might even have beaten Nurmagomedov in different circumstances, if he had kept all the momentum of 2016?
I really hope that we are about to find out. McGregor has said repeatedly that he is committed to this 155-pound frame, and he wants to be active in 2021. We know that McGregor is an incredible fighter. I want to find out this year exactly how amazing it can be.
By the numbers
6: Lightweight knockouts for Poirier, drawing him third in the division’s history, behind Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza.
91: Percentage of McGregor’s victories he finished with submissions (19 knockouts and a submission in 22 wins).
1.95: Knockdowns for 15 minutes in the cage for McGregor, the eighth highest index in UFC history.
6.45: Expressive strokes fell per minute in the octagon by Poirier, the third biggest in UFC lightweight history, behind Justin Gaethje of 7.46 and TJ Grant of 6.83.
8: Pay-per-view events highlighted by McGregor since 2015, including this one. Only Daniel Cormier (9) did more. This will be McGregor PPV’s fourth main event which is not an untitled fight, more than any other in the last 10 years.
Sources: ESPN Stats & Information and UFC Stats
A look back
Since then …
Five against five
The latest results from Dustin Poirier
Victory: Dan Hooker (UD, June 27, 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub3, September 7, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Max Holloway (UD, April 13, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, July 28, 2018)
Victory: Justin Gaethje (TKO4, April 14, 2018)
Conor McGregor latest results
Victory: Donald Cerrone (TKO1, January 18, 2020; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (U4, October 6, 2018; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, 12 November 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Nate Diaz (MD, August 20, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Loss: Nate Diaz (Sub2, March 5, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Dom and Gil’s cinema study
Dominick Cruz explains why Poirier-McGregor 1 acted this way:
Gilbert Melendez on how Poirier-McGregor 2 can be different:
And the winner is …
“I think Poirier will try to fight intelligently and win a mixed martial arts fight, not make it a standing or grappling battle,” said UFC Hall of Fame Urijah Faber. “Conor has seemed super impressive with regard to his athleticism. It looks like he is taking this very seriously. I am supporting Conor again.”
Faber is one of several fighters and coaches who weighed in on analysis and predictions. See what they have to say here.
Taking a deeper dive into the details of the fight is ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez, two-time lightweight champion at Strikeforce and former WEC lightweight champion. Your starting point: that this is a rematch.
“McGregor got the best out of Poirier years ago,” writes Melendez, “and no matter what, it will weigh heavily on the mentality of both fighters.”
How to watch the fights
Watch the preliminaries on ESPN or ESPN +: Download the ESPN app | WatchESPN | TV
Don’t have ESPN? Get instant access.
Don’t have ESPN + for the preliminaries and PPV? Come here.
Did you buy the fight on your cell phone and want to broadcast it on your TV? Find out how here.
There is also FightCenter, which offers live updates for all UFC cards.
Saturday fight card
PPV (via ESPN +), 10 pm eastern time
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor | Light
Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler | Light
Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood | Women’s Flyweight
Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov | Average weight
Marina Rodriguez x Amanda Ribas | Straw weight
ESPN / ESPN +, 8 pm ET
Matt Frevola vs. Arman Tsarukyan | Light
Brad Tavares x Antonio Carlos Junior | Average weight
Julianna Pena vs. Sara McMann | Women’s Rooster Weight
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Marcin Prachnio | Light heavyweight
ESPN +, 7 pm ET
Movsar Evloev vs. Nik Lentz | Catch weight (150 pounds)
Amir Albazi vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Men’s flyweight
The main co-event raises the curtain on a champion
Michael Chandler, a former Bellator lightweight champion, makes his debut in the octagon in the UFC 257 main co-event, facing Dan Hooker, who is in 6th place in the ESPN lightweight ranking. Chandler is No. 7.
Chandler will be the ninth ex-Bellator champion to follow for the UFC, with the previous eight scoring 5-3 in his debut. The winners: Alexander Volkov, Lyman Good, Ben Askren, Will Brooks and Zach Makovsky. Those who lost: Hector Lombard, Eddie Alvarez and Joe Soto.
Alvarez is the only former Bellator champion to win a UFC title.
Some notable numbers – or, why the judges may not even have to worry about sitting next to the cage: Chandler had submissions in 76% of his career fights (nine knockouts and seven submissions in 21 victories), and the Hooker’s submission rate is 85% (10 knockouts and seven submissions in 20 career wins).
Two more things to know (from ESPN Stats & Information)
1 Joanne Calderwood, who faces 2019 title challenger Jessica Eye, has hit 444 significant strokes in her UFC career, the third highest in women’s flyweight history. Calderwood is ranked 5th on ESPN’s 125 pound division.
two The opening of the main card is a confrontation between Brazil’s strawweights, Marina Rodriguez, who is in 8th place in the ESPN ranking, with 115 pounds, and Amanda Ribas, who is 4-0 in the octagon. Rodriguez is coming out of his first career loss, a split decision loss to former champion Carla Esparza in July. Ribas finished seven of the ten wins in his career (four submissions and three knockouts).
Jeff Wagenheim of ESPN contributed to this preview of the fight.