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After two days, the real numbers came up about JJ Watt’s deal with the Cardinals. As I suspect, it is not a two-year $ 31 million deal.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Media (who also with ESPN’s Adam Schefter told the world that it was a two-year deal, $ 31 million), is actually a two-year deal, $ 28 million. Some may say that it is not a big difference. Others may say that $ 3 million is still $ 3 million.
For Rapoport, Watt receives $ 12 million to sign. The deal has a base value of $ 14.5 million in 2021, with a base value of $ 28 million over two years.
To reach $ 31 million, Watt must have 10 or more bags in 2021 and 2022. Watt has not had double-digit bags in consecutive seasons since 2014 and 2015.
Other teams are believed to be in the range of $ 12 million a year for Watt. The Cardinals are paying him $ 14 million. Presumably, no one offered Watt between $ 15 million and $ 16 million, despite an ESPN report last week that used those numbers.
Rapoport does not provide details on the value fully guaranteed on the subscription. Our estimate is that the first year is fully guaranteed ($ 14.5 million) and that the remaining $ 8.5 million in “guaranteed” money is guaranteed for damages only for now, with a likely conversion to full warranty at some point in March 2021. That would be allowing the Cardinals to move on, closing a $ 14.5 million deal for a year, if Watt manages to undergo a physical exam before the full warranty vests next year.
Which is $ 3 million less than Watt should earn in Houston this year. Again, some may say that it is not a big difference. Others may say that $ 3 million is still $ 3 million.