As the coronavirus wave in autumn / winter in Michigan subsided, the continuous average of new cases over seven days dropped to 814 on February 20.
But since then, the seven-day average has increased. It is now 1,266 – an increase of 56% in 17 days.
Meanwhile, the statewide seven-day average positivity rate on coronavirus diagnostic tests is now 4.2% compared to 3.4% a week ago, another worrying sign.
And 935 people are currently hospitalized with confirmed or suspected coronavirus, compared to 824 at the end of February.
The increase in numbers is probably the result of a combination of factors, starting with the fact that people are getting tired of COVID-19-related restrictions and letting their guard down, experts say. Other factors that may be contributing: The spread of more contagious variants; the recent resumption of restaurants in indoor restaurants and sports in high schools; the reopening of cinemas, casinos and bowling alleys,
Below is a more detailed analysis of the data at the county level, based on two of the metrics used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
First, take a look at the average seven-day positivity rates by municipality, grouped by the state’s metric.
- Level E (more than 20%): None.
- Level D (15-20%): Missaukee.
- Level C (10-15%): Kalkaska.
- Level B (7-10%): 13 counties, from largest to smallest – Huron, St Joseph, Ontonagon, Newaygo, Roscommon, St Clair, Cass, Tuscola, Crawford, Cheboygan, Hillsdale, Alcona and Wexford.
- Level A (3-7%): 42 counties, from largest to smallest – Calhoun, Gogebic, Lapeer, Shiawassee, Livingston, Luce, Van Buren, Berrien, Macomb, Kalamazoo, Allegan, Osceola, Sanilac, Genesee, Ingham, Midland, Monroe, Arenac, Wayne, Otsego, Saginaw, Bay, Eaton, Oceana, Mason, Jackson, Antrim, Branch, Lenawee, Kent, Gladwin, Clare, Oakland, Mecosta, Ottawa, Barry, Presque Isle, Grand Traverse, Clinton, Benzie, Montmorency and Ionia.
- Low (less than 3%): 26 counties, from largest to smallest – Iosco, Montcalm, Lake, Muskegon, Leelanau, Manistee, Houghton, Mackinac, Alpena, Menominee, Gratiot, Isabella, Emmet, Delta, Baraga, Dickinson, Washtenaw, Chippewa, Ogemaw, Marquette, Charlevoix, Alger, Iron, Keweenaw, Oscoda and Schoolcraft.
The chart below allows you to search any county by name to see the average seven-day positivity rate for February 24th through March 2nd. The graph compares the average of the last seven days with the average of the previous week.
The interactive map below shows the average test fee of seven days per county. You can place your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
New cases per capita
New daily cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to assess coronavirus risk.
This metric calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million residents.
The levels for each municipality:
- Level E (more than 150 cases per million): 21 counties, from largest to smallest – Kalkaska, Sanilac, Missaukee, Newaygo, St. Joseph, Calhoun, Monroe, Crawford, St. Clair, Tuscola, Gogebic, Lenawee, Wexford, Huron , Cass, Midland, Berrien, Lapeer, Shiawassee, Livingston and Macomb.
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): 36 counties – Antrim, Bay, Saginaw, Osceola, Grand Traverse, Jackson, Roscommon, Kalamazoo, Ingham, Allegan, Wayne, Van Buren, Barry, Cheboygan, Genesee, Eaton, Hillsdale, Kent, Ottawa, Otsego, Montmorency, Oakland, Ionia, Ontonagon, Houghton, Washtenaw, Clinton, Arenac, Lake, Gladwin, Mason, Mecosta, Benzie, Branch, Oceana and Montcalm.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): 12 counties – Keweenaw, Isabella, Delta, Alpena, Schoolcraft, Mackinac, Leelanau, Manistee, Charlevoix, Gratiot, Chippewa and Marquette.
- Level B (20 to 40 cases per million), eight counties: Muskegon, Emmet, Presque Isle, Alger, Menominee, Dickinson, Clare and Alcona.
- Level A (7 to 20 boxes per million): Oscoda, Iosco and Ogemaw.
- Low (below 7 boxes per million): Ferro, Luce and Baraga.
Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the number per capita that fits the population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased compared to the previous seven days.
Current scores are based on new cases reported from 2 to 8 March. The map below is shaded based on the six levels of the state. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased compared to February 23 to March 1.
Readers can place the cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Hint: you can drag the map with the cursor to see the entire UP)
Below are online databases that allow readers to query county-level data for each of the past 30 days.
Overall score
All eight Michigan MI start regions are now at Level D in the state’s overall risk assessment.
In assigning risk scores, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services analyzes factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered, and visits to the emergency department for COVID-19 symptoms. The scale used by the MDHHS has six levels – “low” plus Levels AE.
(MI Start Districts in the state: Region 1 is the Detroit region; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City; Region 7, Jackson and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
Cases per day was reported to the state
The first is a graph showing new cases reported to the state each day for the past 30 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means that the patient first became ill days before.
You can access a chart for any county and place your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
(In some cases, a county reported a negative number (decline) in new daily cases, after a retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In those cases, we subtract cases from the previous date and put 0 on the reported date.)
The next graph below shows new cases in the last 30 days based on the onset of symptoms. In this graph, the numbers for the most recent days are incomplete due to the time lag between people getting sick and getting a result of the confirmed coronavirus test, which can take up to a week or more.
You can access a chart for any county and place your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
Interactive maps divide the state into 10-kilometer hexogons to provide a more localized view of where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to access the research project website.
The first map looks at confirmed and probable cases of coronavirus in the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button in the upper right corner of the map to switch to the second map, which shows the total confirmed cases of coronavirus and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Last daily report
On Monday, March 8, the state reported 1,960 new cases of coronavirus and four deaths on Monday and Tuesday.
The map below shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. You can place your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more data across the state, visit the MLive coronavirus data page, here. To find a test site near you, check the state’s online test finder here, send an email to [email protected] or call 888-535-6136 between 8 am and 5 pm on weekdays.
For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
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