ORLANDO, Florida – Almost four months after losing the 2020 election, Donald J. Trump was able to celebrate being a winner again on Sunday, having won the 2024 presidential election of the Conservative Political Action Conference, while Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida finished first in a second 2024 straw survey covering a field of potential candidates that did not include Mr. Trump.
But in surprise and pessimistic news for Trump, only 68% of conference participants said they wanted the ex-president to run again in 2024. Many more participants, 95%, said they wanted the Republican Party to promote mr. Trump’s policies and agenda endorsed him by running again, even when the mere mention of Trump’s name won applause during the three-day activist meeting.
The straw polls, conducted by secret ballot, reflected the views of current and former elected officials, activists, writers and others who attended the three-day conference – a group that, by and large, represents the far right of the Republican Party and now includes a disproportionate number of Trump’s most fervent supporters.
The ex-president completely dominated the weekend meeting in Orlando – a giant gold replica of it was a major attraction for activists – and the organizers of the event, better known as CPAC, put together two opinion polls to assess the next field presidential whether Mr. Trump runs or not.
Trump had 55% of the vote in the poll in which he was included. DeSantis was the only Republican to reach double digits, with 21% support, in the poll that included Trump. The results were presented by Jim McLaughlin, a Trump researcher who conducted the research for CPAC.
Over the weekend, many of the CPAC speakers, especially other potential Republican candidates for 2024, saluted Trump and defended his achievements under standing ovations on Friday and Saturday.
“Donald J. Trump is not going anywhere,” said Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas on Friday, receiving loud applause.
The results were released on Sunday afternoon, just before Trump came to the CPAC to deliver his first post-presidential speech.
The end result for DeSantis in the straw vote without Trump is a boost to his emergence as one of the leading Republicans of the post-Trump era. As governor of the decisive state of Florida (which is now also home to Trump), DeSantis has become a popular figure among Republicans skeptical of science for his resistance to Covid-related blockades.
His speech on Friday captures the current post-political phase of republicanism. “We can sit and have academic debates about conservative politics, we can do that,” he said. “But the question is, when the Klieg lights get hot, when the left comes after you: are you going to stay strong or are you going to give up?”
Mr. DeSantis also promised to never return to the “failed Republican establishment of yore”. DeSantis, like other presidential candidates, has not indicated whether he really plans to run for the Republican nomination for the White House in 2024.
He won 43 percent in the no-Trump vote, with South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem finishing second with 11 percent.
CPAC polls were not particularly predictive of future presidential candidates. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky won three consecutive victories in the race for the 2016 primary, which he gave up after a poor performance in a competition – the Iowa caucuses. Senator Mitt Romney of Utah won four CPAC votes (in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2012), but is now a figure whose name has attracted boos and derision as one of Trump’s most ferocious Republican critics.
Still, the success of early 2021 for Mr. DeSantis it gives him a bigger platform and bragging rights for a party that continues to pursue any identity other than loyalty to Mr. Trump.
The result of the straw poll was likely to be disheartening for former Vice President Mike Pence, who did not attend the conference. He served as Trump’s loyal # 2 for four years, but his reluctance to try to challenge or overturn the results of the 2020 elections earned him the anger of Trump and, in turn, that of many on the Republican base. Mr. Pence obtained one percent of the CPAC votes.