TEL AVIV, Israel – For three consecutive elections, Israeli politics has had an outsized guest star: Donald Trump.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made his close relationship with Trump – who was very popular in Israel – a centerpiece of his campaigns. His Likud party hung a 15-story poster on Tel Aviv’s busiest highway showing the two leaders smiling and shaking hands.
Trump, who seemed to appreciate his political influence in the country, was widely seen as an attempt to turn polls in favor of Netanyahu. Just before the March 2019 election, Trump invited Netanyahu to the White House, guaranteeing him days of media coverage.
While tired Israeli voters go to the polls for the fourth time in two years on Tuesday, Netanyahu can no longer count on the help of the White House.
President Joe Biden will be left out of the Israeli election after leaving Netanyahu waiting for weeks even to receive a phone call. The silence lasted so long that White House press secretary Jen Psaki clarified that it was not “an intentional disagreement” by Netanyahu.
Polls show that Netanyahu’s party will almost certainly win the majority of votes and seats in Tuesday’s election. It is not clear, however, whether he will be able to form a majority coalition in Parliament along with his right-wing allies. He is also expected to win fewer seats than in last year’s vote.
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Netanyahu’s supporters say Trump’s absence is not hurting his chances. They point to Netanyahu’s success in leading what has been described as Israel’s worldwide vaccine launch and his role in normalizing relations with several Arab states as a sufficient reason for him to win re-election.
“Whether or not we have the support of American presidents, I don’t think that is the biggest factor in the Israeli public’s decision-making process,” said Nir Barkat, a member of Parliament for the Netanyahu party. “They will choose the best Israeli prime minister, regardless of who the president of the United States is.”
The shift in US administrations offers a new line of attack for Netanyahu’s political rivals. Netanyahu’s close ties to Trump were a political calling card in previous elections; his difficult relations with the Democrats are a millstone that his opponents are trying to hang around his neck in this case.
“We have very unhappy Democrats with long memories,” said Yair Lapid, the leader of Israel’s center opposition, adding that Netanyahu “affiliated Israel not even with Republicans, but with a certain current within the Republican Party.”
While Trump has managed to maintain almost iron control over the Republican Party, a Netanyahu Likud faction has split up and is challenging him at the polls this year.
The New Hope party’s accusations against Netanyahu are similar to the claims made by Republicans of Never Trump against Trump – that he turned his party into a personality cult and is mired in corruption.
Netanyahu was indicted last year on charges of fraud, breach of trust and taking bribes in three separate cases. He is accused of accepting lavish gifts from wealthy friends and of offering favors to powerful media moguls in exchange for favorable coverage of him and his family. He denies the charges and the trial continues.
Sharren Haskel was a member of Parliament for Likud, but joined the New Hope party last year. New Hope shares many of Likud’s right-wing positions, but says it offers “statesmanship” instead of Netanyahu’s populism.
“Netanyahu’s best days are behind us, and Israel’s best days are ahead,” Haskel said. “Last year, we saw red lines being crossed. We are in a health crisis and an economic crisis, and decision-making was not done professionally, but on a political basis. These red lines signaled to me and more members in Likud that there is a need for a change in leadership. “
Israel’s complex parliamentary system means that Netanyahu is likely to be replaced as prime minister only if a coalition of left, center and right parties agrees to bury their differences and unite against him to form a coalition government.
Regardless of the composition of Israel’s next government, the Biden government has indicated that it has limited ambitions to restart peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.
“Realistically, it is difficult to see short-term prospects for moving forward,” said Antony Blinken during his Senate confirmation hearing to be secretary of state.
There is also broad consensus among Israeli political parties in opposition to one of Biden’s top political priorities for the Middle East: to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, which the Obama administration negotiated and the Trump administration abandoned.
Israeli leaders across the political spectrum believe the deal is not hard enough for Iran. Its main disagreement is about the best way to present the case to the White House to stay out of the deal or at least strengthen it.
As election day approaches, Netanyahu may no longer be promoting his ties to the president of the United States. But he argues that he is the only candidate with experience to pilot Israel through the dangerous skies of the Middle East.
“I know how to fly this plane,” he said. “The other guys, they don’t have a flight permit.”