Growing numbers of Republicans keep Trump responsible for inciting deadly riots inside the US Capitol on Wednesday. The clashes came hours after guilty Trump for two defeats in Georgia that will put the Senate under Democratic control.
In interviews, more than half a dozen Republicans who supported or worked for Trump said the president is unlikely to run again, although he can provoke that. If Trump changes his mind again and decides to flee, some said they would recommend that he not, while others hope he will be deterred.
“I don’t think anything will happen,” said a Trump friend. “He won’t be around in 2024. He won’t be running. He will play and say he will run. … He will provoke. I don’t think he’ll ever say ‘I won’t run’. He just won’t run. “
With less than two weeks to go, Democrats are calling for Trump’s removal from office, state officials are pushing for criminal charges, allies are failing to support and advisers and even cabinet officials are abandoning him. His crusade to nullify his clear electoral defeat left the Republican Party – already divided during Trump’s presidency – involved in a civil war.
“The Republican Party is more divided now than it was two months ago, and that is not how it should work,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant, who worked for two presidential candidates. “We must be more united now, as we prepare to serve as an opposition.”
These new fractures started when Trump started handrail about fraudulent elections last spring, when he anticipated electoral defeat and devised a strategy to remain in power. He spent weeks after his defeat, alleging fraud with little evidence, pressuring state leaders to overturn the election, threatening Republicans who disobeyed him and criticizing his always loyal Vice President Mike Pence.
“The four years of substantial political achievement, be it the economy, the judges, the Supreme Court, all of that has been erased by six weeks of extraordinary undisciplined bad behavior that culminated in a day of doom on the United States Capitol,” said a national strategist Republican who worked to elect the president.
Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, described Congress’ certification of election results on Wednesday as the “opening round of what will be a fight for the soul of the Republican Party”.
Conversations about Trump’s conduct leading to a GOP civil war have happened before. But it never happened at a time when the president’s political stature was so damaged. The party base may still be with him. But his ability to reach them – and in doing so, intimidate others – suffered a serious blow on Friday, when major social media platforms suspended his account indefinitely or expelled him completely.
Some Republicans – including those who defended Trump through controversy after controversy for four chaotic years – thought with almost certainty that Trump would be his flagship after he left office, although he was never very loyal to the Republican Party. No more.
“He is not the leader of any Republican party that I recognize,” said Scott Jennings, who worked for President George W. Bush and is close to Trump’s White House.
A former Trump adviser said the president now “needs to be ostracized and excommunicated from the Republican Party.”
Still, more than 100 House Republicans and a dozen Senate Republicans signed objections to certifying Joe Biden’s victory. They don’t blame you for what happened at the Capitol. Not some party supporters.
“All the people who despise and dislike Donald Trump have looked for every possible reason to defame him,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump ally, who argued that the media was partly to blame for the “explosion. of frustration and anger ”by those who revolted. “Biden will be the de facto president. But for 45% of the country, he will never be an acceptable president. There will always be the belief that it was a corrupt and dishonest election.”
Even those who have turned against Trump know that he remains popular with his conservative base, many of whom he brought to the party. Trump received nearly 75 million votes in the November election, the second highest number since Biden’s 81 million.
“The problem for the Republican Party is that every Republican on Capitol Hill needs the support of these protesters – and people like them – to survive,” said a senior adviser to Trump. “Unless and until the party can find a message that is more popular with the white working class than Donald Trump, there is no bright future for Republicans.”
Setting up a second act would be difficult for Trump, even if he was not surrounded by controversy and suspended from his social media accounts. Most recent ex-presidents have avoided the spotlight after leaving office, in part to allow their successor to rule.
Several presidents tried to secure a second non-consecutive term, but Grover Cleveland was the only one to succeed, returning in 1892 after being removed from office in 1888.
Trump’s allies say the president has not decided what he will do after leaving the White House. But he told them he wants to hold rallies and campaign against Republican candidates who did not support his proposal to overturn the election, including Senator John Thune of South Dakota, Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia.
But presidential historians say Trump may find he loses political relevance after leaving office, just as former presidents Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush did.
And Trump’s thirst for the political spotlight may also disappear – even if his desire for attention doesn’t lessen. The president’s allies say he has cooled down to formally announce his candidacy for 2024 because running again would require him to disclose financial information, according to two Republicans close to Trump. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, and Bill Stepien, Trump’s 2020 campaign manager, advised him not to rush.
The Trump Organization is presumed having lost millions of dollars during the coronavirus outbreak, just before Trump had to pay $ 421 million in loans he secured, much of it to foreign creditors, according to the New York Times exam of Trump’s personal and business tax returns. Meanwhile, New York investigators are examining whether Trump has improperly inflated assets, avoided taxes and paid women alleging cases in violation of campaign finance laws.
With so much legal drama waiting for him, Trump must continue to provoke a presidential race – without actually filling out the paperwork or running a campaign – to attract the attention he seeks.
“He may not pull the trigger after all,” said a former Trump adviser who remains close to the White House.
If Trump makes declarative statements about the display, buys campaign ads or spends more than $ 5,000 on an actual campaign, he would have to register as a candidate for a position. But if he just explores a potential application, he doesn’t have to, as long as he spends less than the legal maximum on things like research, travel and calls to potential supporters, according Federal Election Commission and electoral lawyers.
“He’s going to last long enough to become a player,” said a former senior administration official, “and then try to be a power broker.”
Gabby Orr contributed.