The Mets are evaluating whether to invest in another big item in this off-season or to add several players to deepen the quality of the overall squad.
The significant part cannot be the free agent catcher JT Realmuto, unless they plan to turn James McCann into a $ 40 million backup. The Mets have not been connected in any recent trade negotiations for Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant.
That leaves Trevor Bauer.
Or not. Steve Cohen earned billions as a risk assessment specialist. The decision could be, for example, that the Mets could achieve the same number of wins by adding, say, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brad Hand, while making a much smaller financial commitment than Bauer alone.
Or does Cohen see this: Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson with Noah Syndergaard on their wings? The Nationals won the World Series in 2019 with a rotation similar to this one, and undoubtedly less attack and bullpen than the Mets currently have.
However, almost any deal with Bauer would make the Mets exceed the $ 210 million luxury tax limit, and Cohen has indicated that he wants to be below that number in 2021. Furthermore, because Bauer received the qualified offer by the Reds and rejected it , The Mets would lose their second choice in the June draft and $ 500,000 in cash on the international slot if they hired him. And the Mets are committed to trying to replenish their agricultural system.
This leads to signs that the Mets are happy to have added the central player they wanted in Francisco Lindor. No one would be surprised if one day in spring training there was a warning to a press conference to announce Lindor’s new $ 300 million extension and that is the substantial financial expense this year. Between Lindor, Carrasco, McCann, Trevor May, Stroman’s retention and even a few more useful pieces or two, the Mets can boast a strong first off-season under Cohen, albeit with the unsettling revelations that led to the resignation of the new GM Jared Porter.
Still, Bauer excites. It doesn’t escape my mind that when Sandy Alderson was hired as chairman of the team, he mentioned that he didn’t mind squeaking when asked about the audacious Bauer. After all, Alderson was the guy who supervised Jose Canseco’s Bash Brothers, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley for three decades. Bauer has a large presence on social networks. This has sometimes been controversial. You can expect more, as Bauer is determined to build his brand. But in doing so, the added benefit is that it is also helping to increase interest in baseball and potentially bringing unaligned fans to a new organization.
But at what cost will a team see if all this is true? At what risk?
The main players in the market, despite COVID-19, have been treated well until now. This may not be true with Bauer. For lack of sustained excellence or personality concerns.
However, until Bauer doesn’t receive the grand prize – more than Max Scherzer’s seven years at $ 210 million, perhaps north of Stephen Strasburg’s seven years at $ 245 million – I will believe that will remain a goal of your camp and a possibility. A few years ago, Bryce Harper had to make a short commitment, but a record annual value for the Dodgers or less per year, but a lot more money from the Phillies. Like most players, Harper received the biggest guarantee – $ 330 million in 13 years.
Bauer may well come across the same puzzle, in part because the Dodgers are at least lurking about him. And Bauer is rare (perhaps unique). He believes in his training methods so much that he talks about his willingness to go short or even year after year and just go back to the market. Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano recently re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants for four years, but with an exclusion option after each season to preserve his right to try to come to the MLB earlier. Bauer could ask for something similar – a shorter deadline for less total money, but with a chance to go out to get the longer money annually, if he wishes.
But I would assume that accepting less total money is an impediment, unless the average value exceeds Gerrit Cole’s current record of $ 36 million annually. Would any team go, say, four years with $ 160 million to the 2020 winner NL Cy Young?
The Dodgers? The Blue Jays? I wonder about the Twins. They have chased high-tech beginners in recent years, like Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler, without guaranteeing them. His head of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, had Bauer in Cleveland and knows all the techniques that Bauer adopted that brought animus early in his Indians tenure have become mainstream in the game now, and that Bauer has had voluntary help and positive impact in beginners like Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger.
If relationships matter (and usually do), Twins GM Thad Levine and one of Bauer’s agents, Jon Fetterolf, were co-captains of the 1993 Haverford College baseball team – although the 1992 team captain, the Dodgers executive Josh Byrnes, be even closer to Fetterolf. Yes, always watch the Dodgers.
But should we watch Mets? Cohen obviously has the money. Does he want the risk?