These types of tornadoes are those that remain constantly on the ground for a long period of time, unlike a typical tornado that could stay on the ground for just a few minutes.
The system that will be responsible for these strong storms is currently affecting the southwest and will make its journey through the Rocky Mountains and launch itself on the plains in the middle of the week, allowing an atmospheric configuration conducive to the formation of dangerous storms.
“We have increasingly hot and humid air over the Gulf of Mexico that will rise rapidly towards the north – these large-scale conditions are quite favorable for severe storms. We think that some of the minor details that we usually see on end days higher weekends, especially with significant tornado potential, will also be in place, “said Bill Bunting, head of forecasting operations at SPC.
“This is a very strong system that we have been monitoring the potential for severe storms as it develops and moves northeast, from the plains to the Ohio valley,” meteorologist Jason Holmes of the NWS office in Birmingham, Alabama told the CNN.
Timing the storms
The threat of thunderstorms begins Tuesday night in much of Kansas, Oklahoma and in northeastern and central Texas.
The biggest risk, however, is likely to be during the early hours of Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday morning. An isolated tornado will be possible, especially in central Oklahoma, but the main risks will be strong hail and damaging winds.
There will also be a separate risk of some severe storms in the South during Tuesday day, including parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
“Our real focus day is now Wednesday. We can see a very widespread severe climate threat and potentially some severe peak storms,” said Bunting.
Wednesday to Wednesday night is expected to be the most active day in terms of heavy storms this week. Currently, there is a “moderate risk” of severe weather in eight southern states, according to the SPC. A “moderate risk” is a level 4 of 5 in terms of its potential severity. This includes Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.
The SPC said a “moderate risk” means “severe generalized storms are likely”, and all threats are possible in Wednesday’s setting – tornadoes, large hail at least the size of a golf ball and intense winds of fur. minus 58 mph.
A morning round of downpours and storms is currently scheduled to move through parts of the Gulf Coast states. Some of these storms can be severe, but the main threat increases in the afternoon and continues until Wednesday night.
During the afternoon hours, some of the states, especially at “Moderate” or “Increased” risks, could see the development of supercell storms. These types of storms are discrete and individual storms, known to produce tornadoes. Not all of these storms will produce tornadoes, but given the favorable environment for tornadoes, this will be possible with some of them.
There will then be a final line of storms along the cold front rising at night near the Mississippi River and heading east through these southern states. Storms along this front will need to be monitored for tornadoes, damaging winds and strong hail.
“This (night) wave of severe storms is likely to have the greatest potential for stronger long-haul tornadoes,” according to the NWS Birmingham office.
There may be “potentially some severe weather waves, starting in the morning, then in the middle of the day and then later in the evening, when the cold front arrives,” said Holmes when discussing the forecast for central Alabama, a region currently in that region. ‘Moderate risk’.
On Thursday, the risk of strong to heavy storms will shift towards the east coast of the United States. The region from central Florida to central Virginia is being monitored by the SPC for this risk. Some areas are currently at a level 3 of 5, “enhanced risk”, according to the Storm Prediction Center. At the moment, the specific timing and threats of the storms are unknown.
Severe storms typical of the south
Strong storms are not uncommon in this part of the country and during this time of year. Historically, strong tornadoes in mid-March have been more prevalent in northern Mississippi and Alabama, which aligns with the storms forecast this week.
“The details will play a significant role in how things stay and where the storms happen. I think the important thing is to know that it is a typical start to the season, severe weather in the southeastern United States in the sense that the storms will be fast and they will continue after dark, “said Bunting.
“A dangerous aspect of tornadoes in the South is that they can occur in the middle of the night, when people are sleeping, as opposed to Tornado Alley storms, which normally become less severe after sunset,” said the meteorologist. CNN Chad Myers.
“It is very important to pay attention to the warning and not wait until you have a visual confirmation (of the storm),” said Bunting. “This is the time for people to have a plan in several ways to receive the warnings.”
This includes configuring weather alert notifications on your phone. Many weather apps offer alerts based on your location, but your device also allows you to turn on tornado warnings notifications in your settings.