When we last spoke to ESPN draft expert Todd McShay, he was allocating LSU wide receiver La’Marr Chase to Detroit Lions with the seventh overall pick in his first simulated offseason draft.
With the postseason now over and the entire draft order for the first round defined, McShay tried a simulation again, and the results are somewhat similar for Lions. McShay maintains the position of the wide receiver, but this time changes his choice to Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith.
In this scenario, the quarterbacks flew off the board. The top four were in the top four: Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars, Zach Wilson for the Jets, Trey Lance for the Panthers (after a switch with the Dolphins) and Justin Fields for the Falcons.
This allowed many talented non-quarterbacks to fall into the draft for Lions. With offensive tackle Penei Sewell and Chase off the board, Lions could take the best defensive player in the draft or find the second best tackle or wide receiver. McShay was the receiver’s route.
With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola set to become free agents – and the Detroit Lions not having much space to offer them a competitive deal – McShay thinks Detroit needs to deal with this high in the draft.
“It’s a problem, but not that the Heisman winner can’t help solve it,” wrote McShay. “Smith is explosive, accumulating 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns in his final year.”
In 2020, Smith had one of the most dominant seasons for a wide receiver in college football. Those 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns resulted in the first Heisman Trophy awarded to a wide receiver since 1991 (Desmond Howard) and only the fourth in history. Smith really shone in the National Championship game, getting 215 yards and three touchdowns in just two quarters of the game.
Smith injured his finger in that game, which resulted in surgery. However, he is expected to have a fully functioning finger when the 2021 season arrives.
The biggest concern with Smith, however, is his size. At 6 ft-1 and 175 pounds, there is little precedent for a receiver who succeeds in the NFL.
There are more than 2,500 WR in the RAS database with registered height and weight.
More than 2,100 from 2000-2020.
Those? Only 27 were 6 ‘or taller and less than 180 pounds.
Those? Only a single receiver since 2000 with these measures has broken 750 yards receiving in a single season.
– Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) January 3, 2021
That said, Smith’s athletics is hard to ignore, and for a team in Detroit that has needed a fast receiver for some time, Smith is a guy who could come in and contribute immediately.