JERUSALEM (AP) – After a difficult election, an Arab Islamist can choose Israel’s next prime minister.
You read that correctly.
Tuesday’s elections left a narrow margin between a right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a diverse range of parties committed to ousting him.
To prevail, each side may need the support of an Arab Islamic party that appears to have won just five seats in the 120-member Knesset, but is not committed to any of them, according to the near-final results.
This means that the United Arab List, known by the Hebrew name Ra’am, can decide whether Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving prime minister, will remain in office.
It is a strange situation for Netanyahu, who came to power rejecting a commitment to the Palestinians and used racist rhetoric in previous campaigns to launch the country’s Arab minority as the fifth column of terrorism supporters.
This time, however, in Israel’s fourth election in two years, Netanyahu sought Arab support in what many saw as a dual strategy. with the objective of obtaining votes and sharing the Joint List, an alliance of Arab parties that won a record of 15 seats in last year’s elections.
In this case, he succeeded, convincing Mansour Abbas, the leader of the United Arab List, to make a separate list. Now Abbas seems to have the keys to the kingdom.
Israelis vote on party lists rather than individual candidates, and seats are allocated based on the percentage of votes received. No party has ever won a majority of 61 seats, so the larger parties must assemble government coalitions – usually with marginal parties.
With about 88% of the votes counted, Netanyahu and his natural allies, and the bloc that opposes him, lack a majority of 61 seats in the Knesset.
Unless another party decides to switch sides, each would need Abbas’ support to form a government and avoid another electoral turn.
Unlike other Arab leaders, Abbas did not rule out working with Likud or other right-wing parties if he can guarantee gains for the Arab community, which faces widespread discrimination, growing poverty amid the coronavirus pandemic and a wave of violent crimes.
Arab parties never asked to serve in an Israeli government or were asked to do so. Abbas could break with that tradition, potentially asking for a position in the Cabinet in exchange for his support. Most likely, he would not have an official position, but instead he would support the coalition from outside the government in exchange for greater public investment in housing, infrastructure and law enforcement in Arab communities.
In an interview with Army Radio on Wednesday, Abbas reiterated that he did not rule out joining either side and hinted at bolder ambitions. “We want to use not only parliamentary tools, but tools from the Cabinet to do things for the benefit of Arab society,” he said.
This can be difficult to accomplish. Netanyahu’s coalition would also have to include the Zionist Religious Party, whose main candidates are openly racist. The differences between Abbas and the far-right group would be difficult to overcome.
In a TV interview on Wednesday, Abbas said religious Zionists “were not the address” to resolve the political stalemate.
There is also a chance that Naftali Bennett, a right-wing leader who also remains uncommitted, will support the anti-Netanyahu bloc. In that case, it could dispense with UAL if it maintained the support of the larger Arab Joint List. Netanyahu could also form a coalition without UAL if he convinced members of the other bloc to defect.
Abbas comes from the Islamic Movement, which was established in 1971 along the lines of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Pan-Arab group. Its main objective is the Islamization of Arab society, which it seeks through religious dissemination and a vast network of charities.
The group split into two branches in 1996 due to the question of whether or not to participate in politics.
The most radical northern arm, led by incendiary cleric Raed Salah, rejects participation in Israeli politics and has been accused of having close ties to Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that also left the Muslim Brotherhood. Salah has been arrested on several occasions and is currently in prison after being convicted of inciting terrorism. Israel banned his group in 2015, accusing him of inciting violence.
The southern arm, to which Abbas belongs, has taken a conciliatory stance towards Israel and is more focused on socio-economic issues than on the conflict with the Palestinians. He allied with secular and left-wing Arab parties in previous elections, but broke with them on issues related to their religious conservatism, such as support for LGBTQ rights.
Arabs represent about 20% of Israel’s population of 9.3 million. They have citizenship, speak Hebrew fluently and are well represented in the medical profession and in universities.
But they face widespread discrimination in housing and public services. In recent years, they have held regular protests condemning violent crimes and accusing Israeli authorities of not doing enough to protect their communities., allegations rejected by the police.
Arab citizens of Israel have close family ties to the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and are largely identified with the Palestinian cause. This led many Israeli Jews to view them with suspicion, something that Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders capitalized on in previous elections.
Before the polls in 2015, Netanyahu drew criticism after warning his supporters that the Arabs were voting “en masse”. In 2019, he pushed for the placement of observers and cameras in polling stations in Arab areas, which critics said was an attempt to intimidate voters.
It remains to be seen whether these observations will come back to haunt you.
Another victory would prolong his 12 years in power – already the longest in Israeli history. The defeat would likely mean the end of his political career and would leave him increasingly vulnerable to prosecution and, potentially, to prison as his trial on charges of corruption continues. Or the country could plunge into another election campaign, prolonging two years of stalemate.
Abbas can decide which path awaits him.