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Donald Trump may have left the White House, but his shadow still hangs over Washington and the Republican Party as the Senate prepares for its second impeachment trial.
The 50 Republicans in the Senate are struggling to appease Trump’s supporters, who still represent a large part of the party’s base, while acknowledging that the former president incited the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
The senators’ dilemma underscores how Republican lawmakers remain tied to Trump, even after his term ends, and raises questions about which direction the party will go when much of its base is still loyal to a president who oversaw the loss of both. the chambers of Congress and the White House.
Trump’s continued power over Republican lawmakers was on full display last week, when 45 senators voted to preemptively reject the impeachment trial. Senators avoided defending Trump’s behavior on January 6, arguing that it was unconstitutional impeachment by a former president.
“The impeachment is for removal from office, and the accused here has already stepped down,” said Rand Paul, who led the charge to end the trial. The Kentucky Republican added that the trial “would drag our great country into the gutter of grudge and vitriol.”
Assuming that the 45 Republican senators who supported the resignation from the trial also vote for Trump’s acquittal, there is no chance that the former president will be convicted of inciting the insurrection. It would take 17 Republican senators, along with all Senate Democrats, to condemn Trump.
Tara Setmayer, a conservative commentator who left the Republican Party in November, described the senators ‘support for rejecting the trial as “the most cowardly example” of Republican lawmakers’ reluctance to face Trump.
“It’s really impressive when you look at how many opportunities the party has had to take the exit ramp and get away from Trumpism,” said Setmayer. “The result is that the republican party is now an anti-democratic, illiberal and pro-seditionist party.”
The problem for Republican lawmakers who may want to part with Trump is that the former president remains extremely popular with the party base. According to an NBC News poll after the Capitol attack, 87% of Republicans still approve of Trump’s performance as president. Reports that Trump considered launching a third party only heightened Republicans’ fears of being challenged by the right.
Trump’s popularity left Republican lawmakers with three main options: remain in the good graces of the former president, step down, or risk being primarily by a Trump opponent. This dynamic occurred last week, when a prominent Republican senator announced his retirement and a pro-impeachment congresswoman faced the threat of a primary pro-Trump challenge.
Senator Rob Portman, a Republican from Ohio, announced on Monday that he would not seek another term, raising Democrats’ hopes of withdrawing his seat next year. In a statement explaining his decision, Portman said: “We live in an increasingly polarized country, where members of both parties are being pushed further to the right and further to the left, and that means that few people are actively looking to find one. common ground. “
Three days after Portman’s announcement, Florida congressman Matt Gaetz held a rally in Wyoming to criticize Liz Cheney, one of 10 House Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment last month. Gaetz, one of Trump’s fiercest supporters in Congress, told a crowd of about 800 people in Cheyenne: “We are in a battle for the soul of the Republican Party and I intend to win it.”
Trump supporters, like Gaetz, rely on the idea that the president’s popularity with the Republican base may lead them to victory, but this philosophy does not have a successful track record. Since Trump took office in 2017, Democrats have taken control of the House, Senate and White House.
“Being negative and being against liberals may be enough to win some elections, but it is not enough to form a governmental coalition. Eventually, you have to be for and against something, ”said Henry Olsen, senior researcher at the Center for Ethics and Public Policy. “At the moment, the base of American conservative voters is divided on what they stand for, but they are united on what they are against.”
The ideological divide between conservatives was evident in December, when Trump called for greater stimulus checks as part of a coronavirus relief package. The legislation passed by Congress included checks for $ 600 for most Americans, but the then president said payments should be much higher, up to $ 2,000.
That number was immediately rejected by Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, who refused to consider a bill passed by the House that would approve major checks. But, according to the poll, 72% of Trump voters agreed with the former president that $ 600 checks were not enough.
“The Republican party has to understand where the people who are open to voting for a conservative party are now, and they are really on a number of issues closer to where Trump is than where the pre-Trump party was,” Olsen said.
These political differences have raised the question of whether the Republican Party is on track to fragment, with one faction maintaining Trumpism and the other focusing on traditional conservative values, such as small government and deficit reduction.
“There is a healthy debate about, should we just let the Republican party wither and die on the vine of Trumpism and start a new party? Because this path for the Republican Party is unsustainable, ”said Setmayer.
In that sense, the votes of Republican senators in the impeachment trial may provide some of the first clues as to how the party will navigate this ideological civil war. After all, if Trump is acquitted, he could launch another candidacy for the White House in 2024, giving Republicans the opportunity to rename the former president.
“There will be a lot to write about in the next four years on this topic,” said Olsen. “Impeachment will only be the beginning of this story, not close to the end.”