A coronavirus infection follows unpredictable paths from person to person. While there are some obvious factors, such as age or underlying conditions, that can put someone at greater risk for a more serious case of COVID, even young, apparently healthy individuals have died of the virus. As a result, many people are concerned that if they get sick, their case may get worse at any time. Fortunately, health experts are learning to discern whether infected people will face serious coronavirus complications. According to research, the only thing that can determine whether your COVID case will be severe or mild is your viral load. Read on to find out how it can affect you, and for more news about coronavirus, find out the one thing you can stop doing to avoid COVID, according to doctors.
Your viral load is the amount of virus in your body – measured inversely in Ct values. If your Ct value is higher, you have a lower viral load; if your Ct is lower, you have a higher viral load. A recent December study published in Open Forum Infectious Diseases found that patients with Ct less than 22 had more than four times the chance of dying in 30 days compared to those who had higher levels of Ct or lower viral loads.
And an old September study published in Cell the researchers recorded viral loads in more than 3,000 coronavirus patients hospitalized on the first day they were admitted. The researchers found that 40% of patients who had levels of Ct 25 or below died while in the hospital, compared with only 15% of patients with higher Ct levels. And to learn more about the risks, this bad habit can increase the risk of dying from COVID, says the doctor.
A study conducted by the Nevada Department of Public Health found that asymptomatic people had an average Ct value of 29.6 – suggesting that those who have no symptoms with their COVID case may carry a lower viral load than those who have . This helps to correlate higher viral loads with the risk of developing symptoms, which can progress to a case of severe or even fatal coronavirus. And for more information on dangerous cases of COVID, if you have it on your skin, you may have severe COVID, the study shows.
Fortunately, tracking your Ct levels doesn’t have to be a complicated matter. Your viral load can be determined by regular PCR. test that most laboratories use to diagnose a COVID infection, The New York Times reports. These tests are performed in “cycles”, which double the amount of viral genetic material extracted from a patient’s sample. If your viral load is higher, the test will only need to be run a few cycles to diagnose you. So if you get a positive coronavirus result at a low cycle threshold (Ct), it means that you have a high viral load. If many cycles have to be performed before a positive test is produced, you probably have a lower viral load. And for more up-to-date information, subscribe to our daily newsletter.
Daniel Griffin, MD, an infectious disease physician at Columbia University, said The New York Times that tracking viral loads “can really help us stratify risk”. This has been documented several times in research during the course of the pandemic.
Griffin says that knowing a patient’s viral load can help hospital staff mitigate needs among patients by predicting the course of their case. For example, some patients may only need an oxygen check once a day, while others may need to be monitored more closely, as they have an increased risk of complications. And for coronavirus symptoms you should know, check out The first signs that you have COVID, according to Johns Hopkins.
So far, tracking viral loads in patients with COVID has not been a priority. But many are hoping that this will change with new guidelines from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). On December 10, they said clinical laboratories could consider reporting an estimate of a person’s viral load along with the results of coronavirus infection.
“This is a very important move by the FDA,” Michael Mina, MD, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health TH Chan, said The New York Times. “I think it is a step in the right direction to make the most of one of the only pieces of data we have for many positive individuals.” And to learn more about the current state of the pandemic, these are the only 4 states where COVID is not growing.