Few things anger MMA fans more than a fight being scored incorrectly, although the term “theft” tends to be used carelessly and often steeped in prejudice. With Robbery Review, we will take a look at the controversial struggles and determine whether the judges were correctly criticized for their decision or whether experts need to examine their own instinctive reactions.
We introduced Robbery Review on the site this year and had to look at a few things to get started. Israel Adesanya’s initial dispute with Yoel Romero made fans furious and questioned whether “The Last Stylebender” did enough to retain its title, the UFC on ESPN 8 gave us a trio of controversial calls that required further scrutiny, and Alexander Volkanovski scored another decision win against Max Holloway, although he was much closer the second time.
Still, it was the fight presented in the first issue of the Robbery Review that I consider the most notable with regard to calamities for 2020, because of the magnitude of the struggle, the volatile reaction on social media and the long-term impact the verdict had on the fighters and their division.
So, let’s talk about Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes once again and then pass the word to the Verdict MMA team to find out what was the most controversial decision of 2020.
Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes (UFC 247, February 8)
Jon Jones was no longer invincible.
At least that was a popular theory in his first – and, as it turned out, lonely – defense of the 2020 title. Sure, “Bones” was still undefeated, but for the first time since his early days in the UFC, there were doubts about his dominance . His out-of-cage problems (a charge of disorderly conduct in July 2019, a DWI and firearm-related charges in March 2020), along with a pair of dull title defenses were easy food for critics to attack.
Jones won by an unbalanced decision over Anthony Smith at UFC 235, but he was rarely in danger during the fight as the lack of submission was disappointing. In his next defense against Thiago Santos at UFC 239, Jones lost his belt with a judge’s card when he reached the split decision in a striking duel with “Mallet”.
Dominick Reyes was next and expectations were moderate. On most betting sites, Reyes was at a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 disadvantage, similar to Santos, and his title run had its ups and downs. After needing a little over seven combined minutes to decimate his first three opponents in the UFC, Reyes looked excellent in the decision win over veteran Ovince Saint Preux and then considerably less notable making a fine split decision against the recent challenger to the title Volkan Oezdemir. A beating in the first round of former middleweight champion Chris Weidman looked great on his resume, good enough to play Reyes in a fight with Jones, but it wasn’t exactly an indicator of whether he would be able to defeat one of the greatest fighters of the time whole.
On paper, Reyes had the tools to be a threat. A former hopeful in the NFL, “The Devastator” would not have an athletic deficit against the talented Jones, and was blessed with the kind of quick knockout power that an underdog needs to dethrone kings. He was as announced on fight night too, looking loose and confident in the opening rounds against Jones.
The lack of definition and the diversity of tactics that Jones displayed in his best performances in the championship were nowhere (a problem that had arisen in the struggles of Smith and Santos too) and from the outside it seemed that Reyes was controlling the action. Was Reyes really winning the fight or just doing better than expected?
Watching it live, I had Reyes winning the first three rounds on my own scoreboard and that didn’t change when I went back to watching the fight for the inaugural Robbery Review. In seeking to establish basic criteria and expose my own prejudices, here is what I wrote at the time:
It is important that I reveal that my standards for what constitutes a steal are high, as I consider the term too overused and often disrespect the efforts of the winning fighter. I should also add that during Saturday’s main event, I found myself working consciously to counteract the “challenger is doing better than expected” bias, so as not to give Reyes more credit than his performance dictated.
So even though I paid extra attention to what Jones was doing, I still leaned towards Reyes. The judges disagreed, granting Jones the fight with scores of 48-47, 48-47 and 49-46.
I considered the fight a steal, especially after incorporating the official UFC statistics (Reyes won the first round by six significant strokes, the second round by 11 and the round three by seven), which although they are an inaccurate indicator of batting effectiveness , certainly helped in the case of Reyes In this case. None of this means that Reyes threw Jones out of the water, but if the decisions were to be based on who won the most rounds, then Reyes was the best man that night. Jones just didn’t do enough to retain it, in my eyes.
The discussion that followed around the fight was so great that it overshadowed what may have been the real theft of the year, Lauren Murphy’s victory over Andrea Lee that happened in the UFC 247 qualifiers. According to MMA Decisions, not a single member of the media marked the fight for Murphy and more than 90 percent of the user-submitted scores were in favor of Lee. The decision ranked first on the website’s list of the most disputed decisions of last year, which was based on average percentage of media and fans who agreed with the judges. Jones-Reyes didn’t even make it into the top 10, just getting an honorable mention.
What matters most to me, though, is that the ripples of Reyes’ loss are still being felt. Jones remained champion, close or not. He showed little interest in a rematch with Reyes or Santos, instead of getting involved in a public feud with the UFC over the compensation of the fighter who would end up with him giving up on the light heavyweight championship and announcing his intention to pursue the title of the heavy. The light heavyweight title would not be played again until September.
Instead of going into his next fight with his belt around his waist, Reyes was thrown into a vacant title fight against Jan Blachowicz and he ended up becoming the last victim of Blachowicz’s trademark Polish power. Only then, Reyes went from candidate to champion to be in the first losing streak of his career. Jones’ absence also opened the door for UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya to step on the scene for a super fight with Blachowicz scheduled to take place next March, with UFC president Dana White hoping for a spiteful fight between Jones and Adesanya is still at stake.
It is fair to say that none of this will happen if Reyes is summoned by the judges at UFC 247. He did not receive, and see where we are now. That is why this remains the most important contested decision of 2020.
Based on how much fights can really be considered robberies and the impact they had on each competitor’s immediate prospects, here’s how I rate the eight fights I analyzed in 2020:
- Jones vs. Reyes
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Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone 2 (UFC 249, May 9)
-
Claudia Gadelha vs. Angela Hill (UFC on ESPN 8, May 16)
-
Dan Ige vs. Edson Barboza (UFC on ESPN 8, May 16)
-
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway 2 (UFC 251, July 11)
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Song Yadong vs. Marlon Vera (UFC on ESPN 8, May 16)
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Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero (UFC 248, March 7)
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Frankie Edgar vs. Pedro Munhoz (UFC on ESPN 15, August 22)
But let’s be honest, what do I know? There are people who actually calculate these numbers in search of the truth, so that’s why I went to the Veredict MMA squad to find out what was the biggest theft of 2020 and the answer surprised me.
“The most controversial decision of 2020 was the rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway at UFC 251, ”Verdict MMA chief data scientist David Chung told MMA Fighting by email. “Veredict The MMA Global Scorecard displays the averages of all scores placed on the platform. This goes back to Aristotle’s “crowd wisdom”, who theorizes that the collective opinion of a group of individuals is more accurate than that of a single expert. The average scores show how close or how dominant a round was, dividing the numbers to decimal places. Veredict has a more granular approach to scoring in MMA. “
“According to the data, rounds one and two were clearly marked for Holloway,” continued Chung. “The fight started to get tough from the third round. Holloway marginally won the third round on the Global Scorecard by 0.04. Volkanovski won rounds four and five, which were as competitive as the data shows ”.
The Verdict MMA system puts more weight in the dominant rounds, which is why Holloway scored a lot in rounds one and two. He left Volkanovski visibly staggering at the end of both rounds (although it should be noted that official statistics do not show Holloway scoring a knockout in the fight).
“There is a clear difference between dominating Holloway’s first two rounds compared to Volkanovski’s third round, so why should these scores have the same weight?” Said Chung. “They do it on official scores, but not on the Global Scorecard.”
The third round was extremely difficult and there seems to be little argument that Volkanovski fought back to win the championship rounds. While Volkanovski’s first victory over Holloway was more convincing (he won two 48-47 scores and a judge even gave him 50-45), the second was as close as possible to Volkanovski’s victory with a pair of 48 -47 against Holloway lone 48-47.
That said, I didn’t think the fight was stealing. Here’s what I wrote in my review:
Holloway had the two best hits of the night – there’s no denying that. But with the benefit of a new observation, it can be seen that Volkanovski connected with many strong punches, especially in the final stages of the competition. In no way was he just firing “pitter-patter” shots, and although he couldn’t visibly return the favor by stunning Holloway, there were definitely times when the challenger had a break.
I also think that Holloway’s initial success shaped the narrative in the third round, as well as the fact that he was doing much better than at UFC 245. Volkanovski’s efforts should not be overlooked, and it is not his fault that the system current score results in a shortage of 10-8s. He fought a winning fight given the criteria.
I also added, “the 10 point system sucks”. But don’t just take my word for it, here’s Veredict MMA with the final say on the subject.
“Holloway defeated Volkanovski on Verdict’s Global Scorecard by a total difference of 1.23,” said Chung. “When you look at our scorecards, you see a lot of fights that have a final score difference below 0.5. These are fierce struggles. A difference of 1.23 is quite significant and is the reason why we have listed the rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway as the most controversial decision of 2020 ”.