COLOMBIA, SC (WIS) – After South Carolina reported about 100 COVID-19 deaths over the weekend, epidemiologists fear that the increase in the number of deaths will continue.
Although the authorities said that deaths are usually reported days or weeks after their occurrence, “I think we can predict that the worst is yet to come,” said the chairman of the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of South Carolina.
Alberg said that new coronavirus infections began to increase after the Memorial Day weekend, and the increase in deaths in South Carolina is occurring in the wake of that increase.
“We can predict with certainty the number of deaths based on the number of cases, perhaps three or four weeks ago. Since the time it takes for the virus to transmit, for someone to fall ill, to hospitalize, hospitalization and, unfortunately, to die ”, he explained.
While DHEC’s daily announcement of new deaths may fluctuate based on when deaths are reported to the agency, the agency also tracks deaths by date of death.
By that count, daily deaths began to increase in late June and early July, four weeks after Memorial Day. Then, new daily deaths began to arrive in the 1920s, and by mid-July, up to 46 people died every day from COVID-19.
However, just because deaths are high, most people who contract the coronavirus do not die.
In South Carolina, about 1.7 percent of all people infected with COVID-19 died, according to recent DHEC data.
Although DHEC says the actual number may be higher, Alberg says the mortality rate for COVID-19 is low compared to other epidemics such as Ebola.
However, the severity of the virus depends on the person.
“Lethality depends on age,” said Alberg.
According to a DHEC analysis, someone aged 21 to 30 who contracts the coronavirus has a 0.5% chance of dying from it.
This figure reaches about 20% for people aged between 61 and 70 years and almost 30% for people in their 70s.
In fact, Alberg says that this year COVID is designed to be one of the biggest causes of death in our state if you compare COVID-19 deaths this year with the top deaths from last year.
“If we can continue on our current trajectory, after a year, we will be the third leading cause of death. This is a serious problem, ”said Alberg.
According to a model created by the University of Washington and cited by DHEC, it is estimated that 3,186 people in SC will die of COVID-19 by November 1.
In 2019, according to DHEC data compiled by the Post and Courier, the leading causes of death were heart disease and cancer, with more than 10,000 people dying last year.
However, if similar trends occur this year, COVID-19 will be right behind cancer and above accidents, lower respiratory diseases, strokes, Alzheimer’s and suicide.
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