In the nearly 30-year history of the Super Bowl halftime show being a showcase for famous artists to play their own hits – since the appearance of New Kids on the Block in 1991 at Super Bowl XXV, and established in pop culture by Michael Jackson in 1993 Super Bowl XXVII performance – no song has jumped to number 1 on the chart after a Super Bowl break performance.
The closest a song came in recent years was in 2017, when Lady Gaga’s mega-hit “Million Reasons” re-entered the charts in 4th place – a new peak for the song – after Gaga’s acclaimed Super Bowl LI performance . This tied the mark defined by LMFAO’s “Party Rock Anthem”, which rebounded 9-4 on the 2012 chart – after spending two weeks in first place – after the duo’s performance as part of the main Madonna-show of the break at Super Bowl XLVI. (Madonna’s “Give Me All Your Luvin ‘”, with MIA and Nicki Minaj, also rose from 13 to 10 in the same week, a new peak.)
The Black Eyed Peas also returned to the top 10 (19-9) with “The Time (Dirty Bit)” after their performance in Super Bowl XLV, while Coldplay narrowly lost the top 10, but marked a new peak with their “Adventure” of a single Lifetime “(36-13) after playing in Super Bowl 50.
Of course, it is rare for an artist to have had a single current person populating the upper reaches of the Hot 100 at the time of its appearance in the Super Bowl, let alone two. Even though the intermission show has been a stage for the best and greatest artists in music for 30 years, many of those years have featured legacy artists – Gloria Estefan, Prince, Bruce Springsteen – who were far from their days of Hot 100 dominance. It was only in the last decade that contemporary pop stars became the standard artist mode of the range, and yet several years (Beyoncé in 2013, Katy Perry in 2015) featured artists who were out of the loop in their promotional programming, without a real active success to present at the show.
There have been occasions when circumstances have lined up for artists to achieve an active success in the Super Bowl break – although none of them have ever been as close to the top of the Hot 100 as “Blinding Lights” is today. Travis Scott’s Astroworld Hot 100-topper “Sicko Mode” was still in 5th place on the hit charts week of its appearance during the Maroon 5 show at Super Bowl LIII – but the music in several parts may not have been better performed in secondary form excerpts at Super Bowl, and only stayed in fifth place the following week. Justin Timberlake Forest Man the single “Filthy” was also relatively new when it started its performance at the Super Bowl LII break, but the momentum of the poorly received song had already dropped significantly since its debut at number 9 on the chart the previous month, and dropped to 51st Super Bowl follow-up week takes place – recovering to only 34th position the following week.
Certainly, no song has ever been prepared for a return to the top of the Hot 100 than “Blinding Lights”, which is not only still in the top five of the charts, but has endured for over a year as one of the most universally loved pop songs in all the 21st century – with ads for her next performance, including listeners of all ages and demographic groups singing along with her. But “Save Your Tears” should also not be dismissed as a candidate: it has more current momentum than “Lights”, and more listeners are likely to hear the still relatively new (but also highly accessible) single for the first time on the show, perhaps leading to more downloads and streams from those recently presented that already had their “Lights” filled.
Competition for first place, however, will be fierce. Of course, there’s the incumbent: Olivia Rodrigo’s heartbreak anthem “Driver’s License”, which debuted at the top of the charts in January and is now hanging for three weeks – possibly four next week – while posting some pretty historic streaming numbers. These have decreased somewhat since his debut on gangbusters, but his radio performance has improved in the meantime, with “License” becoming only the third debut release in the history of Advertising panelPop Airplay chart to climb the top 10 in the first three weeks.
And then there’s Cardi B. You won’t find Cardi on the Hot 100 today, but the rapper’s new single “Up” is scheduled to be released at midnight this Friday (February 5th). Considering that she has topped the Billboard Hot 100 four times in the past four years – including her first debut at the top of the list last year, with “WAP” assisted by Megan Thee Stallion – she should be considered a threat to stand out at the top from the charts whenever she releases a new official single. (She will also have her own little Super Bowl demo.)
Still, with two challengers of your own, and almost every ear in the world to your attention, you would understand The Weeknd feeling very good about your chances of accomplishing the historic feat. In a week that originally was supposed to be all about Grammy – and that he had probably set aside for a long time to extend the victory lap, before he was scorned and the prizes were postponed anyway – it would certainly be the best consolation prize he could ask for.