The Warriors opened the season by expressing three goals, only one of which is very tangible: Make the playoffs comfortable enough to avoid the play-in tournament.
That means no less than a No. 6 seed.
Asked on Tuesday if that was the goal, Warriors coach Steve Kerr reiterated, “Oh, sure.”
To get around the play-in tournament involving 7-10 seeds, they will have to improve considerably. And they know it.
“We just want to be out of the picture,” said Stephen Curry. “That would be useful. But we want the best sowing possible. Every victory is important. Every game is important. “
This is absolutely true, as the Warriors (19-16, eighth in the Western Conference) close the first half of the season on Wednesday night in Portland and Thursday night in Phoenix. It is a brutal consecutive set with potentially serious consequences.
If the Warriors win both games and move up to 20-15, they will go to five to over 0.500 for the first time this season, move up to fifth place in the standings and go into the All-Star range with an appearance of momentum. They can even fantasize about where they would land in May.
“You want to be as high as possible,” said Curry. “Probably the best scenario we are in right now, maybe we can sneak into the seed of four. That would be incredible. “
Amazing? How about incredible?
The division of the next two games is realistic, but unsatisfactory, as the Warriors would reach the break in 20-17, three games in 0.500.
If the Warriors lose both games, which is conceivable, the difficulty of climbing to the sixth half in the second half requires them to play considerably better than in the first half.
As in 22-13, nine games over 0.500. A score of 41-31 may be good enough for seed # 6.
Getting to seed # 4, however, can take something like 25 to 10 seconds in half. That would be miraculous.
Consider what’s to come: Portland, five over 0.500; Phoenix, 11 over 0.500; the Clippers, 12 over 0.500; and the Lakers, 13 over 0.500. A 0-5 stretch, leaving the Warriors at 19-21 on March 16, would be devastating. Winning three would be impressive, two would be satisfying.
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Consider that the rest of the schedule is well loaded. Two games against the 76ers, one game against the Bucks, trips to Miami, Toronto and Boston.
Let’s say the Warriors go from 7 to 5 in their remaining 12 games with teams from the Eastern Conference. It is possible, but not if they offer games, as they did last month in Orlando and Charlotte.
For the Warriors, the best thing about the second half schedule is 23 games against Western Conference opponents. They are in a position to decide their destiny.
Most of those 23 games are face to face with teams likely in the 4-10 range. Three games against the Grizzlies, three against Pelicans, two each against the Nuggets and the Suns. One more against Jazz. Thunder and Kings, each of which the Warriors face twice, are lurking outside that level.
Remember that these teams love the chances of reminding the Warriors that they no longer run the league. This is particularly true for Phoenix and Memphis, but also for Nuggets and Pelicans.
It will take about 40 wins to reach seed # 6. With Utah and the two Los Angeles teams on their way to winning about 50 games, reaching fourth place means more than 40 to 40 years.
The 6-seed is within reach, but only if the Warriors improve on the road, where their record of 7-10 is the 11th best in the West. And yet, they would need to become more consistent at the end of games.
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