The United States would need to significantly increase vaccinations against coronavirus if we are to achieve collective immunity soon.
Why it matters: At a minimum, herd immunity requires the vaccination of 70% of the population. And reaching that benchmark is especially difficult – because children are not yet eligible for vaccines, the United States would need to inoculate the vast majority of adults.
By the numbers: The United States would need to administer 2.4 million doses a day to vaccinate 70% of the population by July 4.
- To get there by Labor Day it would take 1.9 million doses a day.
- To achieve collective immunity on January 1, 2022, we would need 1.2 million doses a day.
Where is it: The Centers for Disease Control reported 1.6 million vaccinations last Friday, and yesterday the Biden government raised its target – now it is aiming for 1.5 million vaccines a day instead of 1 million.
- If management also uses that time to create a better and more coordinated process, including raising more vaccine sites, then it seems reasonable to increase it to 2 million to 3 million doses a day by the summer.
Yes but: Supply can be the limiting factor.
- There are some reasons for optimism, however, with vaccines from Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca and Novavax expected to enter the market this year.
- The Johnson & Johnson vaccine requires only one injection, so supplies will extend further.
What we’re watching: Doing this work will require an adequate build-up of supplies, and the Biden administration will have to respond quickly to new questions as they arise.
- Reaching such a large percentage of the adult population will also require overcoming vaccine hesitation, especially in rural America and communities of color.
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