The United States followed Europe in previous Covid-19 outbreaks. Will it happen again?

France on Friday imposed a month-long blockade in Paris and other parts of the country. Italy earlier this week implemented new restrictions.

The United States generally followed the European Union for a few weeks in the dynamics of the outbreak, said Dr. Anthony Fauci this week. In Europe, cases have declined, stabilized and then countries have backed down on mitigation methods and made a recovery in cases, he said in a conversation with The Wall Street Journal.

“They are in the process of recovery now, which is something we absolutely want to avoid,” said Fauci. He added that, given the current level of infection in the community in the United States, it is risky to withdraw all preventive modalities.

A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows that in 25 states, the average number of new cases in the last seven days is greater than the average number of cases in the last 14 days, indicating that cases are increasing. These states include Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. The number of states trending in this direction has fluctuated in recent weeks, growing from just five states a month ago.

The United States includes many local epidemics, with different patterns in states governed by community decisions on interventions and vaccinations, said Yonatan Grad, assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.

“I don’t know if it makes sense to compare the entire United States with what is happening elsewhere,” said Grad.

If the number of cases and hospitalizations is increasing in places where restrictions have been lifted and bars, restaurants and other activities have reopened, this raises concerns about an increase in transmission, Grad said. In these places, he added, the expectation is that the numbers will continue to rise.

In Michigan, the positivity of the case has increased for more than three weeks, with all regions stabilized or with increasing positivity, according to data monitored by the University of Michigan. According to the CDC, the highly transmissible coronavirus variant first identified in the UK, known as B.1.1.7, is prevalent in the state, with 616 cases.

At first, the post-holiday decline in new cases of Covid-19 was steady in Michigan, and then it began to stagnate and increase, said Emily Toth Martin, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

The number of cases in younger age groups, under 50, is increasing, said Dr. Martin, and there are reports of case groups taking place in school-related activities outside the classroom.

Dr. Martin said she has been working with a team doing the genomic sequencing of Covid-19 cases. In Michigan, she said, they are testing variants within known groups, rather than random sampling in the community.

“If you compare us to a state that does random sampling across the community, it looks like we have a variant problem,” said Dr. Martin, “when, in fact, we’re just looking for it in a more targeted way.”

The UK variant is not the predominant strain that moves through the community, said Martin. Instead, the increase in the case count is being driven by changes in behavior, more mobility and more openness.

This will lead to fluctuations in the case count, especially since the number of people vaccinated in the community is not so high, she said. About 22% of residents received at least one injection, according to data analysis from the Journal’s CDC.

“We are extrapolating our skis a bit, in terms of having a lot of enthusiasm to reengage and start opening things back up and starting dating again, when in fact none of the people involved in these activities are really protected or immune,” said the Dr. Martin.

Overall, Covid-19’s positivity rate continues to decline in the US, with a seven-day average of 4.1%. According to data from the CDC, cases of Covid-19 per capita are highest in the 18 to 24 age group, followed by those 25 to 34 years old.

The possible plateau appears as the vaccination campaign in the United States, considered the key to the end of the pandemic, gains speed. Last week, the country surpassed the mark of 100 million doses of vaccines administered. And on Friday, the United States met President Biden’s goal of providing 100 million doses of the vaccine during his first 100 days in office, weeks ahead of schedule. The rate of vaccination is now 2.5 million doses per day on average; nearly 12% of the US population is vaccinated, according to data from Johns Hopkins.

By comparison, 3.68% of Italians, 3.64% of Germans, 3.37% of French and 2.65% of UK residents are vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins. The EU’s vaccination effort has been hampered by a shortage of doses, making it likely that only a small part of the general public will receive an injection by the end of the summer, while the spread of highly contagious coronavirus variants is accelerating across the region.

Most Americans who have been fully vaccinated are 50 or older, according to CDC data.

But with the US choosing to prioritize a limited number of vaccines for older or vulnerable adults – who are most at risk for serious complications and death from Covid-19 – this means that those who are perhaps more likely to move in the community will be vaccinated later, according to Dr. Martin and Dr. Grad.

“It makes sense, if your goal is to reduce deaths, focus on vaccinating those most at risk of dying if infected,” said Dr. Grad, adding: “There are some contexts in which you would like to vaccinate those who are at the most high risk of transmission to reduce cases, in order to reduce deaths ”.

Write to Melanie Grayce West at [email protected]