The coronavirus pandemic may no longer be spreading exponentially in the UK, according to government data that suggests the country’s third blockade is working.
The official estimate of the “R rate” – which measures how many people each infected person passes the virus – fell to between 0.8 and 1, the results released on Friday showed. When R is above 1, the virus spreads exponentially. Last week, the R rate was estimated between 1.2 and 1.3.
The government said case rates remain “dangerously high” and asked the public to stick to the blocking rules.
“There is a small minority that does not do this, a small minority that disregards the rules and thinks that they do not matter,” said Environment Secretary George Eustice. “We can see that it matters if you look at the pressure on hospitals right now.”
However, the data will provide good news to the Boris Johnson government, which was forced to put the country in another block in early January, after a new highly infectious strain of the disease has settled.
Fall rates
The Department of Health figures show that the estimated R rate has dropped in all regions of England since last week. In London, it fell to 0.7 to 0.9, suggesting that the disease is clearly retreating in the capital, where hospitals are still under intense pressure. London Mayor Sadiq Khan on Friday reiterated his call for the government to strengthen regulations.
The estimates for the R rate correspond to results from other sources. Early Friday, statistics suggested the number of people infected with Covid-19 in England fell slightly in the week until January 16.
England’s Covid infection rates drop for the first time in a month
The Johnson government wants to start lifting restrictions after vaccinating 15 million of the most vulnerable people and their caregivers. But the prime minister signaled on Thursday that the fast-spreading variant could mean the need for blocking measures by summer.
Caution
Articles published by the government’s Scientific Emergency Advisory Group on Friday show that there is reason to be cautious, even with the R rate below 1. According to a document dated 6 January, scientists expect the prevalence of the viruses fall more slowly than during the first block last spring, even if R remains below 1 until mid-February.
“As a result, it is highly likely that hospital occupancy will be at current levels or above in mid-February,” said the report. At the time, there were almost 32,000 coronavirus patients in UK hospitals, according to government data, a number that was already about a third higher than the peak of the first wave last April.
Authorities have repeatedly said they expect the cases to stabilize and fall under the current blockade long before the rate of hospitalizations and daily deaths shows a significant improvement.
(Fourth paragraph updates with comments from Eustice, Khan)